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The Winds Of Stock Market Change May Be Brewing For 2019
MICHAEL KRAMER AND THE CLIENTS OF MOTT CAPITAL OWN TESLA & NETFLIX,
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S&P 500 (SPX, SP500)
The S&P 500 did a whole lot of nothing today, which is fine with me considering yesterday’s big move higher. But the trend, for now, is still higher and that might be all that matters. As long as the index stays above 2,794, then that trend remains our friend.
Dollar (DXY)
The dollar moved nicely higher today. I certainly would not call this a confirmation move higher for interest rates. But if the dollar does break out, that is bad news for oil and the rest of the commodity complex.
Oil
Right now, oil is sitting on its 50-day moving, but we can also see that 200-day moving average is quickly rising. On its last move lower, the commodity found support at the 200 DMA. Will it be the same case this time? Depends on if the dollar breaks out and by how much it rises. Watch the dollar here.
Copper
Copper is a good indicator for global economic health, and right now it suggests the global economy is may not be that strong.
Platnium
Platinum is trading like it’s 2008. Platinum is most used in the automotive business to help lower emissions.
Winds of Changes?
Is of some of the commodity-related weakness due to a stronger dollar? Sure. But, we surely can’t contribute it all to the dollar. For the first time since the summer of 2016 when I turned mega bullish, and I will say this very carefully, I am growing bearish on the global and US economy. I do not see a recession, but decelerating growth. I’m still working through this.
GDPNow is tracking the third quarter at 3.9%, a solid showing given the quarter ended three weeks ago. But CPI and PPI last week are now sending a signal of disinflation taking hold in the economy, and you can see it clearly in the prices of many commodities. Have you seen Lumber?
Lumber 
2019?
I think that at the very least we consider should this scenario and what it might mean for equity prices should things slow. I will be monitoring earnings very carefully and most important tracking the trends in earnings estimates for 2019. Ang sign of estimates falling is not what we want to see. Think about this carefully. Watch the trends.
Netflix (NFLX)
Did if you watch the trading action in Netflix today? It was amusing. The stock gapped higher, and then it worked its way lower for most of the day, in an attempt to fill that gap. It was apparent to me very early in the day what would occur.
The stock managed to work all the way down from $390’s to $357. Ask yourself why $357? What is magical about $357? Well, first off its a critical level of technical support going back to June. It was also the price that stock failed at twice on October 9. Once the stock hit support, it rallied nicely into the close.
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This report contains independent commentary to be used for informational and educational purposes only. Michael Kramer is a member and investment adviser representative with Mott Capital Management. Mr. Kramer is not affiliated with this company and does not serve on the board of any related company that issued this stock. All opinions and analyses presented by Michael Kramer in this analysis or market report are solely Michael Kramer’s views. Readers should not treat any opinion, viewpoint, or prediction expressed by Michael Kramer as a specific solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a particular security or follow a particular strategy. Michael Kramer’s analyses are based upon information and independent research that he considers reliable, but neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Michael Kramer is not under any obligation to update or correct any information presented in his analyses. Mr. Kramer’s statements, guidance, and opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment commentary presented in this analysis. Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investments or strategies mentioned in this analysis may not be suitable for you. This material does not consider your particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs and is not intended as a recommendation appropriate for you. You must make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies in this analysis. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Before acting on information in this analysis, you should consider whether it is suitable for your circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser to determine the suitability of any investment.
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This report contains independent commentary to be used for informational and educational purposes only. Michael Kramer is a member and investment adviser representative with Mott Capital Management. Mr. Kramer is not affiliated with this company and does not serve on the board of any related company that issued this stock. All opinions and analyses presented by Michael Kramer in this analysis or market report are solely Michael Kramer’s views. Readers should not treat any opinion, viewpoint, or prediction expressed by Michael Kramer as a specific solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a particular security or follow a particular strategy. Michael Kramer’s analyses are based upon information and independent research that he considers reliable, but neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Michael Kramer is not under any obligation to update or correct any information presented in his analyses. Mr. Kramer’s statements, guidance, and opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment commentary presented in this analysis. Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investments or strategies mentioned in this analysis may not be suitable for you. This material does not consider your particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs and is not intended as a recommendation appropriate for you. You must make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies in this analysis. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Before acting on information in this analysis, you should consider whether it is suitable for your circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser to determine the suitability of any investment.
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This report contains independent commentary to be used for informational and educational purposes only. Michael Kramer is a member and investment adviser representative with Mott Capital Management. Mr. Kramer is not affiliated with this company and does not serve on the board of any related company that issued this stock. All opinions and analyses presented by Michael Kramer in this analysis or market report are solely Michael Kramer’s views. Readers should not treat any opinion, viewpoint, or prediction expressed by Michael Kramer as a specific solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a particular security or follow a particular strategy. Michael Kramer’s analyses are based upon information and independent research that he considers reliable, but neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Michael Kramer is not under any obligation to update or correct any information presented in his analyses. Mr. Kramer’s statements, guidance, and opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment commentary presented in this analysis. Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investments or strategies mentioned in this analysis may not be suitable for you. This material does not consider your particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs and is not intended as a recommendation appropriate for you. You must make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies in this analysis. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Before acting on information in this analysis, you should consider whether it is suitable for your circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser to determine the suitability of any investment.
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Amazon (AMZN)
Amazon looks like it consolidating nicely right below $1,840. That is a positive sign.
Banks
Look at the bank index (BKX) it goes right back to resistance and fails miserably. Not good!
Micron (MU)
I have to tell you Micron has held-up very nicely in a terrible tape, and that has to be a good thing. At least I think so. Look at that RSI starting to change direction. Better days may be in store for Micron.
Tesla (TSLA)
Look at the RSI on Tesla, it seems like the trend is starting to change. Another positive sign?
Ok, That is it!
Night!
-Mike
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Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future.
spx, sp500, dollar, oil, copper, platnium, netflix, amazon, tesla, micron, banks
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This report contains independent commentary to be used for informational and educational purposes only. Michael Kramer is a member and investment adviser representative with Mott Capital Management. Mr. Kramer is not affiliated with this company and does not serve on the board of any related company that issued this stock. All opinions and analyses presented by Michael Kramer in this analysis or market report are solely Michael Kramer’s views. Readers should not treat any opinion, viewpoint, or prediction expressed by Michael Kramer as a specific solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a particular security or follow a particular strategy. Michael Kramer’s analyses are based upon information and independent research that he considers reliable, but neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Michael Kramer is not under any obligation to update or correct any information presented in his analyses. Mr. Kramer’s statements, guidance, and opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment commentary presented in this analysis. Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investments or strategies mentioned in this analysis may not be suitable for you. This material does not consider your particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs and is not intended as a recommendation appropriate for you. You must make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies in this analysis. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Before acting on information in this analysis, you should consider whether it is suitable for your circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser to determine the suitability of any investment.
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