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There Something Screwy Going On, Anybody Have A Clue?
No rate cut? Repo rates surging? What the heck is going on? Time to bring out the 2008 playbook? Eurodollar's, Libor, Ted Spreads?

There Something Screwy Going On, Anybody Have A Clue?

This column is my opinion and expresses my views. Those views can change at a moments notice when the market changes. I am not right all the time and I do not expect to be. I disclose all my positions clearly listed on the page, and I do not trade my account on the stocks spoken of in this column unless fully disclosed. If that does not work for you stop reading and close the page. Do not bother me or harass me.

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September 17 – Stock mentions: SPY, ACAD, NFLX, SHOP, AMD, SNAP

Michael Kramer and the clients of Mott Capital own ACAD and NFLX

You ever have a day where nothing seems to go your way. That has how mine has been. All screwed up from the start and never got my rhythm back.

I don’t understand what is going on. Things seem all screwy. Will They or Won’t they cut rates. Repo rates spiking.

No Rate Cut Tomorrow?

The CME Group is now showing a less than 50% of a chance rate cut tomorrow. A pretty astonishing turn of events. The Fed Fund Futures continue to climb and are now around 1.9%.

fed funds

Repo Rates- Yes, Repo Rates

Then we have the repo rates surging. The repo rate is what banks charge to lend to one another overnight. Hard to say there is something disastrous going in the overnight interbank lending market. But since it it is in the news, I guess we should look at it.

The big concern here is that some bank or institution may not have enough dollar. Some people are pointing to a dollar shortage in general in the market, or maybe do to tax payments. The theories are all over the place.

I guess my natural intuition from living through 2008 is immediately to check libor and eurodollar rates. To this point, we aren’t we seeing a significant spike in eurodollar future rates? Eurodollars are dollars held outside of the US.

There can’t be that much stress in the system??

eurodollar

Even overnight libor rates from yesterday only ticked up by two bps from 2.09% to 2.11%, yesterday. So, I’m a bit confused by this. I will have to go and revisit my 2008 playbook to see what exciting things I can dig up. Maybe we can start talking about the TED spread again.

In all seriousness, I’m confused by all of this to some degree. I’m not sure that the economic data has improved all that much in one week to warrant the Fed, not cutting rates.  I talk about it a lot more in my video today. If The Fed Doesn’t Cut It Will Come As Shock To The Market, And Not Only Stocks, I also went over some this repo stuff.

S&P 500 (SPY)

The S&P 500 rose when it was supposed today at the uptrend. So I guess we can all hold our breathe and see what tomorrow will bring.

S&P 500, spx

Acadia (ACAD)

Acadia announced a secondary tonight, another $250 million worth. It should be interesting to see how it prices and trades tomorrow, it will be very telling. I wonder if the Bakers will get to take a considerable part of the deal like they on the last secondary in November when they received 11.7 million shares of the 16.1 million shares when the stock was $17.

acad, acadia

SNAP (SNAP)

SNAP rose sharply following the upgrade this morning. The stock managed to close above $16.70, which was the level I note on the mid-day update at lunchtime. Premium content- first two weeks are free- Stocks Are Flat, But May Be Not For Long

snap, snap

Shopify (SHOP)

Shopify had a good day and bounced nicely after the secondary pricing at $317.50, managing to finish at $328. But the trend in the stock still appears to be lower, and the shares are still in a precarious spot.

Shop

Netflix (NFLX)

Netflix had a nice day, and it appears it may be finally making that turn higher.

netflix, nflx

AMD (AMD)

AMD continues to act poorly, failing to rise above $31.40. The next day or so will be telling to see if the stock breaks out or not. Premium content, first two weeks free to try – AMD Continues To See Negative Trends

amd, amd

-Mike

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