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Mott Capital Management’s third-quarter 2026 market outlook, authored by Michael Kramer and based on data through July 30, 2026, presents 45 exhibits covering market trends, volatility, interest rates, Federal Reserve policy, liquidity, credit, earnings, valuations, inflation, currencies, and international equities.
The report uses data from sources including the Federal Reserve, Cboe, ICE BofA, and the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. It is intended solely for informational and educational purposes and should not be considered investment advice or a specific recommendation.
Navigating
the Market
Contents
Trend & Technicals
- 1S&P 500 at inflection points
- 2S&P 500 — price, moving averages and momentum
- 3CTA trend proxy — momentum signals and flip levels
- 4S&P 500 — distance from the 200-day moving average
- 5S&P 500 — annual returns and intra-year declines
- 6S&P 500 — drawdown from all-time high
- 7Breadth — equal-weight vs. cap-weight
- 8Leadership — semiconductors vs. the S&P 500
- 9Rotation — semiconductors vs. software
- 10S&P 500 sectors — year-to-date total returns
Volatility & Positioning
- 11Dispersion minus implied correlation — and the S&P 500
- 12VIX term structure — 3-month minus spot
- 13Event pricing — VIX1D minus VIX
- 14Implied vs. realized — VIX minus 21-day realized volatility
- 15Correlation — implied vs. realized
- 16Dispersion — Cboe DSPX
- 17Single-stock vs. index volatility — VIXEQ minus VIX
Macro & Cross-Asset
- 34Inflation — headline and core CPI
- 35Inflation swaps — market-implied CPI
- 36Oil and short-term inflation expectations
- 37Oil and the 10-year yield
- 38Gasoline and headline CPI
- 39Unemployment and the yield curve
- 40US dollar — DXY index
- 41Dollar funding — JPY cross-currency basis and the S&P 500
- 42FX matrix — year-to-date cross-rate moves
- 43Asset-class returns — ranked by year
Trend & Technicals
Where the index sits today: price, momentum, breadth and leadership.
Volatility & Positioning
What index and single-stock options are pricing: level, term structure, correlation and dispersion.
Rates & the Fed
The curve, real yields, breakevens and the policy path.
Liquidity & Credit
The Fed’s balance sheet, where the cash sits, and what credit spreads are pricing.
Earnings & Valuation
Index-level estimates, revisions, the multiple and where valuations sit against history — from the Mott Capital S&P 500 earnings monitor.
Macro & Cross-Asset
Inflation, the labor cycle, the dollar and the crosses.
International
How the rest of the world is trading, and the US premium.
Disclosures
For informational and educational purposes only. Not investment advice. Not a recommendation.
This report contains independent commentary to be used for informational and educational purposes only. Michael Kramer is a member and investment adviser representative with Mott Capital Management. Mr. Kramer is not affiliated with this company and does not serve on the board of any related company that issued this stock. All opinions and analyses presented by Michael Kramer in this analysis or market report are solely Michael Kramer’s views. Readers should not treat any opinion, viewpoint, or prediction expressed by Michael Kramer as a specific solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a particular security or follow a particular strategy. Michael Kramer’s analyses are based upon information and independent research that he considers reliable, but neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Michael Kramer is not under any obligation to update or correct any information presented in his analyses. Mr. Kramer’s statements, guidance, and opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment commentary presented in this analysis. Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investments or strategies mentioned in this analysis may not be suitable for you. This material does not consider your particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs and is not intended as a recommendation appropriate for you. You must make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies in this analysis. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Before acting on information in this analysis, you should consider whether it is suitable for your circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser to determine the suitability of any investment.
Data sources: Yahoo Finance; Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED); Cboe; ICE BofA; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; Mott Capital Management bottom-up aggregation of LSEG consensus estimates. Data as of July 30, 2026 unless noted on the chart. Indexes are unmanaged and cannot be invested in directly. ETFs shown are used as proxies for their asset classes.
This report contains independent commentary to be used for informational and educational purposes only. Michael Kramer is a member and investment adviser representative with Mott Capital Management. Mr. Kramer is not affiliated with this company and does not serve on the board of any related company that issued this stock. All opinions and analyses presented by Michael Kramer in this analysis or market report are solely Michael Kramer’s views. Readers should not treat any opinion, viewpoint, or prediction expressed by Michael Kramer as a specific solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a particular security or follow a particular strategy. Michael Kramer’s analyses are based upon information and independent research that he considers reliable, but neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Michael Kramer is not under any obligation to update or correct any information presented in his analyses. Mr. Kramer’s statements, guidance, and opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment commentary presented in this analysis. Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investments or strategies mentioned in this analysis may not be suitable for you. This material does not consider your particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs and is not intended as a recommendation appropriate for you. You must make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies in this analysis. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Before acting on information in this analysis, you should consider whether it is suitable for your circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser to determine the suitability of any investment.