Why A Strong Dollar Will Kill Oil's Monster Rally - Mott Capital

Why A Strong Dollar Will Kill Oil’s Monster Rally

This column is my opinion and expresses my views. Those views can change at a moments notice when the market changes. I am not right all the time and I do not expect to be. I disclose all my positions clearly listed on the page, and I do not trade my account on the stocks spoken of in this column unless fully disclosed. If that does not work for you stop reading and close the page. Do not bother me or harass me.

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Why A Strong Dollar Will Kill Oil’s Monster Rally

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It was a pretty dull day, and to be honest, not a whole happened that seems overly exciting. But I have been thinking a bit about what a stronger dollar means to Oil, and how a stronger dollar could stop Oil’s rise in its track.  In fact, since 1986 the correlation between the two is -0.76, a very strong inverse correlated, with an R^2 of 0.57.

The Dollar Impact

Just how much power does the dollar hold over the future direction of Oil? A lot! In fact, From May 1, 2002, through July 1, 2008, the price of Oil rose from by nearly five times from around $28 per barrel to $140, while the dollar index fell by almost 37 percent.

WTI Crude Oil Spot Price Chart

WTI Crude Oil Spot Price data by YCharts

From April of 2014 until the end of 2016, the dollar climbed by nearly 28 percent, while the price of oil fell by almost 46 percent.

WTI Crude Oil Spot Price Chart

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WTI Crude Oil Spot Price data by YCharts

If not for the financial crisis in 2008, the correlation would probably even be higher.

WTI Crude Oil Spot Price Chart

WTI Crude Oil Spot Price data by YCharts

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Dollar Index

As of right now, the dollar index has one more hurdle to clear around 94 to 95, before it has it goes on a clear path back towards the 100 level.


The dollar impact can go far beyond the price of oil, it is a drag on companies doing business abroad. First, it makes our products more expensive, and then the conversion back from local currency back to dollars has a negative impact.

Right now, tracking the dollar is going to be very important, to figure out where the price of Oil goes.



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Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future.

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Tags: #dollar #oil