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12.2.20
Stocks – AMD
Macro – HGX, SPY
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Stocks finished the day mixed, with the S&P 500 up around 25 bps, while the Qs finished the day around 16 bps. Meanwhile, 10-year rates increased and are very close to breaking out on the ten-year, and could send rates sharply higher. This really needs to be the focus because the housing index has already started to respond to this, and this could be a serious issue for many of the long-duration, big growth stock that investors juiced up.
The 10-Year rate close just above the down trend line that started in 2018. We will need to see this move higher tomorrow to confirm, but if it has officially broken out, then it is likely to result in the 10-year moving sharply higher towards 1.05% and potentially back to roughly 1.3%
The HGX fell by 2.2% today and continues to diverge from the S&P 500. This is a very rate sensitive part of the market. This is sending what I think to be an obvious signal.
AMD rose today and once again failed to break out at $94. Not a good sign for the stock. There are clearly plenty of sellers up at this level, and why not, plenty of shares to be issued.
That’s all for today.
-Mike
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This report contains independent commentary to be used for informational and educational purposes only. Michael Kramer is a member and investment adviser representative with Mott Capital Management. Mr. Kramer is not affiliated with this company and does not serve on the board of any related company that issued this stock. All opinions and analyses presented by Michael Kramer in this analysis or market report are solely Michael Kramer’s views. Readers should not treat any opinion, viewpoint, or prediction expressed by Michael Kramer as a specific solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a particular security or follow a particular strategy. Michael Kramer’s analyses are based upon information and independent research that he considers reliable, but neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Michael Kramer is not under any obligation to update or correct any information presented in his analyses. Mr. Kramer’s statements, guidance, and opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment commentary presented in this analysis. Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investments or strategies mentioned in this analysis may not be suitable for you. This material does not consider your particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs and is not intended as a recommendation appropriate for you. You must make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies in this analysis. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Before acting on information in this analysis, you should consider whether it is suitable for your circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser to determine the suitability of any investment.
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