Mott Capital Management

This commentary examines whether the S&P 500 can sustain its recent rally as volatility tailwinds fade, liquidity conditions normalize, and funding pressures shift in the week ahead.

A mechanically driven, volatility-fueled rally faces mounting liquidity and gamma risks ahead of major Treasury settlements.

The November 25 session reflected a mechanically driven volatility unwind that lifted equities despite tightening liquidity and rising funding rates.

A tightening liquidity backdrop and upcoming Treasury settlement drains suggest potential downside pressure despite Monday’s volatility-driven rally.

A holiday-shortened week brings heavy data, multiple Treasury settlements, and tightening liquidity conditions that may elevate volatility and pressure equity markets.

Treasury issuance appears to be pushing the stock market lower.

A volatile session saw an early rally quickly reverse as elevated implied volatility, Treasury settlement pressures, and NVIDIA’s gamma dynamics combined to drive a sharp intraday downturn.

A volatile trading day unfolded as liquidity flows, rising implied volatility, and upcoming Treasury settlement pressures shaped index moves and near-term expectations.

A complex mix of liquidity pressures, earnings risk, and global rate moves sets the stage for heightened volatility over the next 24 to 36 hours.

A challenging mix of settlement-driven funding stress, widening credit spreads, and rising Japanese yields weighed on the S&P 500, signaling potential downside risk ahead.

A busy week of economic data, tight liquidity, and NVIDIA earnings is expected to drive elevated market volatility and choppy price action across markets.

Market pressure intensified as AI-linked equities sold off sharply, credit spreads widened, and tight liquidity conditions persisted ahead of significant Treasury settlements.

A quiet trading session masked notable shifts in correlations, credit spreads, liquidity conditions, and currency moves that could signal mounting pressure beneath the stock market’s surface.

Despite a modest rise in the S&P 500, underlying indicators—including tightening liquidity from Treasury settlements, weakening dispersion trends, and SoftBank’s divestment of NVIDIA—point to growing downside risk and a potential market turning point.

The S&P 500 rallied sharply as implied volatility collapsed, but upcoming Treasury settlements and liquidity shifts could test the market’s strength midweek.

Stocks had a strong third quarter, following a solid second quarter. In fact, the market hit new all-time highs for both the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ 100, driven mainly by mega-cap technology stocks, especially NVIDIA. However, as we move into the fourth quarter, there are signs that investors may be becoming cautious of the…

Stocks rebounded Friday as volatility collapsed and traders unwound puts, while Treasury settlements and tight funding conditions remain key themes for the week ahead.

Stocks fell roughly 1% as negative gamma positioning, weak momentum, and tight liquidity combined to push the S&P 500 below key technical levels.

U.S. equities rose modestly as volatility eased and long-term yields surged, with liquidity and technical pressures shaping near-term market direction.

Liquidity conditions continue to tighten across markets as Bitcoin weakens, credit spreads widen, and the dollar breaks higher—raising red flags for risk assets.

The S&P 500 traded mostly sideways as widening credit spreads and declining free cash flow in key tech names signaled growing downside risks for equities.

Overnight liquidity remained tight after month-end pressures, while shifts in volatility and correlation suggest further equity market adjustments ahead.

U.S. equities fell as tightening liquidity and month-end funding pressures weighed on markets, with the S&P 500 declining 1% and the divide between tech and the broader market continuing to widen.

The Fed’s 25-basis-point rate cut and announcement to end quantitative tightening on December 1 set the stage for shifting liquidity dynamics, heightened funding pressures, and a potential reversal in recent equity market trends.

NVIDIA’s 5% surge lifted the S&P 500 modestly higher despite widespread market weakness, as investors brace for tomorrow’s FOMC meeting and potential volatility swings.

Volatility measures signal waning market lift as the dispersion trade nears its end, with parallels emerging between gold and equity volatility patterns.

This coming week will feature earnings from five of the mega caps — Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta, and Amazon — along with three major central bank meetings: the Fed, ECB, and BOJ. But while all eyes will be on these events, the Treasury will be draining another $100 billion in liquidity from the market in…

The S&P 500 closed higher but failed again at key resistance ahead of the CPI report, with volatility metrics and short-term funding rates signaling potential near-term weakness.

Stocks retreated as the S&P 500 showed signs of a potential double-top pattern, with tightening liquidity and Treasury settlements adding pressure while Tesla and Netflix faced technical weakness.

Gold plunged 5.5% as a gamma squeeze appeared to unwind, while the S&P 500 remained flat and HYG showed signs of renewed weakness near key resistance.

Stocks surged as implied volatility collapsed and the S&P 500 closed above its 20-day moving average, though stretched correlation metrics and upcoming Treasury settlements may test market resilience.

The S&P 500 remains capped below its 20-day moving average following OPEX, with narrowing dispersion, tightening liquidity, and shifting volatility ratios suggesting potential downside risks ahead.

Volatility measures surged far beyond the modest S&P 500 decline, signaling broad-based hedging and rising liquidity stress beneath the market’s surface.

Stocks ended up 40 bps Wednesday as liquidity strains from Treasury settlements pushed repo rates higher and gold volatility spiked to levels not seen since early 2025.

The S&P 500 struggled to hold above key technical levels as narrowing correlation spreads and Powell’s comments on QT signal potential volatility ahead.

The S&P 500’s rally met technical resistance at its 20-day moving average, while falling VIX readings suggest near-term calm that may not last.

The S&P 500’s sharp 2.7% decline on Friday may lead to a short-lived rebound as the VIX 1-day resets, but systematic fund flows and persistent volatility risks suggest further downside pressure remains possible.

Credit spreads widened and liquidity signals tightened as the dollar strengthened and risk assets weakened, hinting that financial conditions may be turning restrictive again.

The S&P 500 remains range-bound near the 6,750 gamma level amid rising volatility, weakening breadth, and a strengthening U.S. dollar breaking above key resistance.

The ghost of 2018 haunts this market, not 1999…

Markets face key inflection points this week as Treasury auctions, dollar strength, and widening credit spreads could shape near-term moves in yields, currencies, and equities.

The S&P 500 remained flat at 6,720 as financing costs and repo usage point to increasing downside risks for the S&P 500.

Volatility dropped to even as liquidity conditions remain tight and select stocks signal potential shifts in market leadership.

Liquidity stress surfaced as repo rates climbed above the Fed’s target, reverse repo volumes declined, and the S&P 500 Dispersion Index reached its highest level since the tariff tantrum.

U.S. equities closed flat as dispersion remained elevated, liquidity tightened, and markets awaited the JOLTS report and major Treasury settlements.

The McClellan Summation Index dropped below 500 for the first time since May, raising concerns about market breadth, volatility floors, and widening European credit spreads.

The dollar strengthened further as rising yields, tightening liquidity, and falling reserves raised risks for equities ahead of key economic data and quarter-end settlements.

The S&P 500 held its 10-day EMA despite broad selling, while the IWM broke trend support, the dollar formed a potential double bottom, and gold reached extreme RSI levels not seen since 1980.

The S&P 500 fell while equal weight indices rose as volatility measures spiked across the board, highlighting ongoing market dispersion driven by the Mag 7.

The S&P 500 advanced while underlying market weakness, liquidity pressures, and rising volatility highlighted fragile conditions beneath the surface.