This column is my opinion and expresses my views. Those views can change at a moments notice when the market changes. I am not right all the time and I do not expect to be. I disclose all my positions clearly listed on the page, and I do not trade my account on the stocks spoken of in this column unless fully disclosed. If that does not work for you stop reading and close the page. Do not bother me or harass me.
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MARCH 8, 2020
STOCKS: AAPL, MSFT, ROKU, BABA, MU, AVGO, CTXS
MACRO – SPY, BONDS, SPREADS
MICHAEL KRAMER AND THE CLIENTS OF MOTT CAPITAL OWN AAPL AND MSFT
Please remember my predictions are just that, predictions. In times of volatility, one is always much better off playing it conservatively, than aggressively. Remember, the preservation of capital is the key.
Plus, my crystal ball is fuzzy at times, and this one of those times it seems to have some extra static. 😛
PREMIUM CONTENT ON MY SA MARKET PLACE SERVICE READING THE MARKETS:
For the Week of March 9
The volatility during the week of March 9 is likely to continue, and bonds are likely to be wild as well. I think the move lower in yields is pretty much complete at this point, and we should see them reverse higher. PREMIUM CONTENT – 3 MOST IMPORTANT INDICATORS TO WATCH FOR THE WEEK OF MARCH 9
I think we might even see the 10-year rise back to 1.05% this week.
The move higher in yields will be a result of spreads between US and German Bunds expanding after a steep sell-off this past week, perhaps moving back to roughly 1.75%. Premium content – The Spreads Causing Dislocation
S&P 500 (SPY)
This should help the equity market recover some and potentially move back to 3,125. The pattern almost appaers to be an island reversal, if so that would also be a bullish indication.
Volume on both of those bottom days was much higher than other days, so maybe it is that reversal pattern. We can wait and see. It won’t be easy that’s for sure. I have plenty of friends and readers thinking we continue even lower. Makes me feel like I’m out here all alone, not a great feeling.
Of course, if we do not bounce and fail at support around 2,875, then we are likely to retest 2,855, which is extremely important and must hold to avoid even more considerable declines.
Apple will have to be one of those stocks that will need to lead everything higher, maybe moving back to $301. Premium content Apple’s Stock May Be Heading Back To Its All-Time Highs
Microsoft will have to be another stock leading the way higher with a potential push towards $173.50
I’d like to see Micron push higher, potentially back to $55.60. After I was seeing more bullish bets being placed in the stock on Friday. Premium content- Micron Update, More Call Buying
It will be a huge week for Broadcom, and I care very much what they say, and you should too. This is the must-watch earnings call of the week. A push back to $290 seems reasonable.
Perhaps Roku has bottomed for now, with the RSI hitting 30, and the stock finding support at $100. I think maybe it can move back to $116 for the time being.
Alibaba continues to stand strong, and $201 seems pretty solid, with share potential pushing back to $211.
A member asked me to look at Citrix, and the chart seems broken and inconclusive at this point. I don’t like that the uptrend is broken, and I can’t get a sense of direction.
Have a great Sunday, and continue to use caution this week.
Good luck to all. Like all of you, I’m just trying to make sense of things during these crazy times.
Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future results.