March 8, 2009
Macro: SPY, TLT, Oil, KOSPI
The gods of the financial markets couldn’t even wait until Monday to make me wrong on my ten predictions, geez. I mean, come on. If there is any hint of positive news, it is that hopefully, with some luck, the S&P 500 futures can stabilize. Currently, they are suggesting a 4.35% decline. The bad news is that we blew right through support at 2,855, and the futures reach the last line of support in the 2800’s, at 2815.
I’m sorry to say, but the next level of support after 2,815, which is the August lows. If that level breaks, then we go back down to 2,725.
The only positive I see on that chart is that RSI is not making a new low, and that could suggest that a change of trend is beginning to form, but it is maybe a tad early to hope for that.
The price war in oil between Russia and Saudia Arabia is resulting in Oil prices to drop and basically sending it back towards its 2016 lows. With commodity hopefully finding some support in the $26 to $28 region.
Meanwhile, the 10-year is falling and trading around 50 basis points. That is pushing out spreads even lower, towards 1.20% versus the 10-year German Bund.
For now, the KOSPI is holding the lows around 1980. That is one thing the bulls have to hang our hats on for now.
Anyway, to remind everyone in a worst-case scenario of no growth in 2020 and 10% earnings growth rebound in 2021 with 16.1 earnings multiple, I am projecting a value on SPX of 2792. However, there is also the chance we have not only no growth in 2020, but earnings contraction, and that means 2,792 would be too high. But I have yet to work those numbers.
Good Luck to everyone tomorrow, we all get through this.
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