This column is my opinion and expresses my views. Those views can change at a moments notice when the market changes. I am not right all the time and I do not expect to be. I disclose all my positions clearly listed on the page, and I do not trade my account on the stocks spoken of in this column unless fully disclosed. If that does not work for you stop reading and close the page. Do not bother me or harass me.
Otherwise, enjoy the column!
Subscribe to the Monster Stock Market Commentary to get the Weekly Monster Market Commentary and join the 3,072 subscribers getting it for FREE!
[widget id=”wordads_sidebar_widget-41″]
3 Keys To The Stock Market For The Week Of February 12
The week of February 12 will continue to volatile, whether the stock market is going up or going down. The tug of war we saw on Friday, between positive and negative territory will likely continue especially on Monday. But as we wrote yesterday, signs are emerging that a bottom is in the process of being put and place, and there will be some keys to this market that could suggest the worst is over.
[widget id=”text-16″]
[widget id=”text-19″]
Vol
Volatility will obviously be the key to the market, and the VIX and many of the ETF products will be the critical focus. The chart shows how dangerous the inverse VIX ETF products are, below is the SVXY, which has been destroyed. But more important than prices, we want to see the volume continue to fall back to normal levels.
Here in lies the problem too, and I am shocked when I see products where you can buy volatility on individual stocks, like the VXAZN, and VXAPL, basically betting that vol will rise on Amazon or Apple, these are nothing more than casino like products, betting on volatility rising.
[widget id=”wordads_sidebar_widget-41″]
Inflation and Yield Watch
The Consumer Price Index reading is coming out this week, and the street is looking for m/m reading of 0.3 percent, and a y/y rise of 2 percent. We can see that CPI has traced OIL pretty consistently over the past.
Subscribe to the MCM Stock Market Commentary to get it weekly and join the 3,072 subscribers getting it for FREE!
But unfortunately, it also likely means that the inflation reading is likely to come in ahead of expectations. But I will guess that unless it comes in some crazy reading of above 3 percent, I think the market will be calmed, that inflation is not running away, which I don’t think it will do.
For now, over the short-term, if I had to guess, yields are likely done rising for a bit and a retracement back towards 2.6 percent seems in order.
[widget id=”text-12″]
Stock Watch
Watch the leadership in the stock market from stocks like Apple, Alphabet, and Microsoft. These are the leaders in the market, and when times get rocky one wants to see the leaders lead.
Micron could also be a big one to watch during the week, as the company recently pre-released revenue guidance which was higher than expectations.
But the market cared not, and if a bounce or even a bounce is attempted, it should be found in companies that continue to beat and raise expectations.
Facebook also has seen its shares fall sharply, and have fallen to levels not seen since the early fall, and for now, have found a meaningful bounce.
The technology ETF (XLK) could also be critical, as that ETF was grossly overbought, and has come down hard. Strength and outperformance would is a big positive.
Good Luck
[widget id=”text-14″]
[widget id=”text-17″]
Mott Capital’s Reading The Markets – An In-depth Global Macro Stock Market Commentary – In Video Format – See How Michael Dissects The Markets
Just $200 Per Year – Get Your Free 2 Week Trial
Recent Videos:
Searching For The Market Bottom
Don’t Freak Out About Friday’s Sell-Off
How The “Street” Got Apple So Wrong
Free Articles Written By Mike:
Why Bitcoin May See A 30% Dead Cat Bounce
Visa Options Bulls See Stock Rising 10% By June
Why Under Armour Faces Steeper Declines
Why Microsoft Can Rebound By 10%
Why Bank Of America And Morgan Stanley Can Rebound By 25 Percent
Nvidia Options Traders Bet Big On Chipmaker As Stock Drops
Bitcoin Investors Face More Pain On Likely 35% Plunge
Why Apple’s Supercycle Has Only Begun
Qualcomm’s Time To Decide Its Fate Has Come
Why Visa’s Stock Is Running on Fumes
Chipmaker Broadcom Doesn’t Need Apple To Rebound
Apple May Lose Crown As World’s Most Valuable Company
Chipmaker Skyworks Seen Rising Despite Apple Skepticism
Why Boeing’s Stock Will Keep Flying High
Join our 3,072 Daily Subscribers And Get This Commentary In Your E-Mail! Subscribe
-OR-
[vc_tweetmeme type=”follow” follow_user=”michaelmottcm” show_followers_count=”true” large_button=”true”]
Michael Kramer and clients of Mott Capital own shares of GOOGL
Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future.
© 2018 Mott Capital Management, LLC. Use, publication or reproduction in any media prohibited without the permission of the copyright holder.
Tags: #sp500 #apple #technology #alphabet #micron #facebook #amazon #microsoft #vix #yields #volatilty