This column is my opinion and expresses my views. Those views can change at a moments notice when the market changes. I am not right all the time and I do not expect to be. I disclose all my positions clearly listed on the page, and I do not trade my account on the stocks spoken of in this column unless fully disclosed. If that does not work for you stop reading and close the page. Do not bother me or harass me.
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August 5 – Stock mentions: SPY, EWY, JD, BABA, AMD, AMZN, SQ
- S&P 500 Futures -39 points
- US 10-Year 1.76%
- Dollar Index 97.71
- VIX 20.95
- Oil $55.19
- Nikkei -1.74%
- Shanghai -1.62%
- Hong Kong -2.85%
- KOSPI -2.56%
- DAX -1.55%
- FTSE -1.98%
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China’s Currency Falls
Surprise, surprise. China’s yuan is falling yet again. However, this time, it has dropped to around 7.05 to the dollar. That is the lowest level for the yuan versus the dollar in a decade! Should we be surprised by this? Absolutely not, this has been what China has been doing since the trade war started. Remember it was April 2018 when the currency was at 6.25 to the dollar.
What’s the best way to fight a trade war with tariffs? Devalue one’s currency. One should expect to see the currency continue to devalue.
Hard to say how much more it could fall, after all, one must remember that China does not have a free-floating currency.
South Korea (EWY)
Also interestingly the South Korea KOPSI has now fallen below its December lows! I would consider that a pretty major development and one that we will need to continue to watch.
As a result, the 10-year treasury is falling to around 1.75%, that’s the lowest level we have seen in this current cycle.
S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
As of this moment, the S&P 500 SPDR ETF is trading around $289, which puts that on pare with our level of support we have watched around 2,890.
S&P 500 (SPY)
It means that the next level of support for the S&P 500 falls to around 2,870, should 2,890 not hold.
None of this is good for Chinese ADR’s such as JD.com. Remember, as a weaker yuan hurts the revenue and earnings outlook for this company. It also means that support for the stock falls to around $26.10
It is also awful for Alibaba, with the potential for that stock to fall to $151. The next level for BABA after that price doesn’t come until $141.
AMD is also falling today and appears it may not be on its way to $27.22.
Amazon is also falling today, as investors merely take risk-off the table. Support at $1770 is being tested; the next major of support doesn’t come until $1700.
Square is also continuing to drop, and the next significant level of support after $65.50 isn’t until $62.
Have a super Monday!
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