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August 5 – Stock mentions: SPY, AMZN, AAPL, BABA, AMD, BA
Michael Kramer and the clients of Mott Capital own AAPL
And the machines go wild!
How much of today’s sell-off was a machine-driven algo’s gone wild sell-off versus true China trade war concerns we will never know. But what I do know is that the market moves faster than ever and what used to takes weeks and months, now takes hours and days. While it may be hard to believe the S&P 500 was around 3,020 just last Monday, today it touched almost 2,820. That is nearly a 6.2% decline in a week. Premium content: Retest Of June Lows Seems Possible
For as beautiful as ETF and index investing is, today’s wild move lower can be the result. It is a vicious negative cycle: the ETF’s NAV goes lower; therefore the ETF sells stocks; then stocks fall, then the NAV of the ETF falls, then the ETF sells stocks, and so on. Not to mention that Algo’s rule the land, and they all follow some kind model, so if the model says to sell, that is what happens. I guess you have to ask yourself if you agree or disagree with the “model.”
The good news is that the S&P finished the day down about 3%, and that means we need to fall about 4.25% more to see a 10% correction. Which at this pace could be by mid-week. Not outside of the realm of possibility. I had noted earlier today in a mid-day update that a close below 2,880 likely sets up a retest of the June lows of around 2,730.
S&P 500 (SPY)
At the moment, 2,730 seems possible. Hey, it gets us to 9.7% off the July high.
VIX
The VIX broke above resistance today at 22, and that likely means it goes higher towards 26. It means more downside risk for equities. 
Apple (AAPL)
AAPL fell today, as it should. Now that AAPLfell below $194, we need to think that perhaps $182 is possible.
AMD (AMD)
Under normal circumstances, AMD appears it has formed a double or even triple top. The stock fell below support at $28.50, and it could be ready to move much lower, perhaps to $25.70.
My one hesitation is that today doesn’t seem as if it was normal.
Amazon (AMZN)
AMZN did fall below support at $1,770, and that means $1,700 could be coming.
15:45
Defined Terms and Jargon:
• Baltic Dry Index (BDI): A measure of shipping rates for raw materials, often viewed as an indicator of global economic activity.
• Inverse Head and Shoulders Pattern: A bullish technical chart pattern indicating a potential reversal of a downtrend into an uptrend.
• Diamond Reversal Pattern: A technical chart formation indicating a potential trend reversal, characterized by price movements forming a diamond shape.
• QE (Quantitative Easing): A monetary policy where central banks purchase assets to inject liquidity into the economy, generally lowering interest rates and weakening currency.
• Rare Earth Metals: A group of chemically similar metallic elements crucial for advanced technological and industrial applications, including electronics and defense.
• Inflation Swaps: Financial instruments used by investors to speculate on or hedge against future inflation expectations.
• Control Group (Retail Sales): A subset of retail sales data that excludes volatile components and provides a clearer view of consumer spending trends.
• HGX (Philadelphia Housing Sector Index): An index tracking performance of housing-related stocks including home builders and commodity producers.
• Implied Volatility Dispersion Trade: A market strategy involving options, exploiting differences in volatility between an index and its individual components.
• Correlation Index: An indicator measuring how closely individual stocks move together, used for gauging market risk and sentiment.
Please remember to leave questions in the comments. I’ll be back later. Bye.
This report contains independent commentary to be used for informational and educational purposes only. Michael Kramer is a member and investment adviser representative with Mott Capital Management. Mr. Kramer is not affiliated with this company and does not serve on the board of any related company that issued this stock. All opinions and analyses presented by Michael Kramer in this analysis or market report are solely Michael Kramer’s views. Readers should not treat any opinion, viewpoint, or prediction expressed by Michael Kramer as a specific solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a particular security or follow a particular strategy. Michael Kramer’s analyses are based upon information and independent research that he considers reliable, but neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Michael Kramer is not under any obligation to update or correct any information presented in his analyses. Mr. Kramer’s statements, guidance, and opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment commentary presented in this analysis. Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investments or strategies mentioned in this analysis may not be suitable for you. This material does not consider your particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs and is not intended as a recommendation appropriate for you. You must make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies in this analysis. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Before acting on information in this analysis, you should consider whether it is suitable for your circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser to determine the suitability of any investment.
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This report contains independent commentary to be used for informational and educational purposes only. Michael Kramer is a member and investment adviser representative with Mott Capital Management. Mr. Kramer is not affiliated with this company and does not serve on the board of any related company that issued this stock. All opinions and analyses presented by Michael Kramer in this analysis or market report are solely Michael Kramer’s views. Readers should not treat any opinion, viewpoint, or prediction expressed by Michael Kramer as a specific solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a particular security or follow a particular strategy. Michael Kramer’s analyses are based upon information and independent research that he considers reliable, but neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Michael Kramer is not under any obligation to update or correct any information presented in his analyses. Mr. Kramer’s statements, guidance, and opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment commentary presented in this analysis. Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investments or strategies mentioned in this analysis may not be suitable for you. This material does not consider your particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs and is not intended as a recommendation appropriate for you. You must make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies in this analysis. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Before acting on information in this analysis, you should consider whether it is suitable for your circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser to determine the suitability of any investment.
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11:40
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This report contains independent commentary to be used for informational and educational purposes only. Michael Kramer is a member and investment adviser representative with Mott Capital Management. Mr. Kramer is not affiliated with this company and does not serve on the board of any related company that issued this stock. All opinions and analyses presented by Michael Kramer in this analysis or market report are solely Michael Kramer’s views. Readers should not treat any opinion, viewpoint, or prediction expressed by Michael Kramer as a specific solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a particular security or follow a particular strategy. Michael Kramer’s analyses are based upon information and independent research that he considers reliable, but neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Michael Kramer is not under any obligation to update or correct any information presented in his analyses. Mr. Kramer’s statements, guidance, and opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment commentary presented in this analysis. Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investments or strategies mentioned in this analysis may not be suitable for you. This material does not consider your particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs and is not intended as a recommendation appropriate for you. You must make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies in this analysis. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Before acting on information in this analysis, you should consider whether it is suitable for your circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser to determine the suitability of any investment.
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Alibaba (BABA)
Alibaba needs to hold $151, or it could fall to around $141. I don’t see how it will hold $151, but you never know.
Boeing (BA)
Boeing uptrend appears broken, and now $317 is coming.
Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
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This report contains independent commentary to be used for informational and educational purposes only. Michael Kramer is a member and investment adviser representative with Mott Capital Management. Mr. Kramer is not affiliated with this company and does not serve on the board of any related company that issued this stock. All opinions and analyses presented by Michael Kramer in this analysis or market report are solely Michael Kramer’s views. Readers should not treat any opinion, viewpoint, or prediction expressed by Michael Kramer as a specific solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a particular security or follow a particular strategy. Michael Kramer’s analyses are based upon information and independent research that he considers reliable, but neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Michael Kramer is not under any obligation to update or correct any information presented in his analyses. Mr. Kramer’s statements, guidance, and opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment commentary presented in this analysis. Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investments or strategies mentioned in this analysis may not be suitable for you. This material does not consider your particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs and is not intended as a recommendation appropriate for you. You must make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies in this analysis. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Before acting on information in this analysis, you should consider whether it is suitable for your circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser to determine the suitability of any investment.
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