This column is my opinion and expresses my views. Those views can change at a moments notice when the market changes. I am not right all the time and I do not expect to be. I disclose all my positions clearly listed on the page, and I do not trade my account on the stocks spoken of in this column unless fully disclosed. If that does not work for you stop reading and close the page. Do not bother me or harass me.
Otherwise, enjoy the column!
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Trading Session for February 21, 2019
- S&P 500 Futures are pointing to a 1 decline on February 21 as of 8:15 AM
- US 10-Year: 2.66%
- Oil: $57.50 +$0.31
- VIX: 14.05
- Dollar Index: 96.50
- Japan Nikkei: +0.15%
- China Shanghai: -0.34%
- Hong Kong Hang Seng: +0.41%
- South Korea Kospi: -0.05%
- Singapore STI: -0.01%
- UK FTSE: -0.56%
- German DAX: +0.31%
- German 10-Year Bund: 0.122%
- Japanese 10-Yr JGB: -0.047%
Global Growth Proxies
- Copper: -0.63% $2.90
- Platinum: -1.28% $823.40
- Silver: -1.93% $15.865
- Markit US Services PMI Est. 54.3
- Markit US Manufacturing PMI Est. 54.7
- German Markit Manufacturing PMI 47.6 vs. Est. 49.7
- German Market Services PMI 55.1 vs. Est. 52.9
- Outline for Trade between the US and China
- Brexit vote maybe next week
Despite the problems in Europe, the German DAX continues to rise and is nearing a potential break out should it rise above 11,535. It would likely send the index on to 11,891.
Reasons To Be Optimistic Longer-Term
It seems hard to deny that no matter the troubles some of the economic indicators maybe flashing, stock markets continue to rise. The big question is whether it is part of a longer-term dead cat bounce or if it is a sign an improving global outlook?
The critical industrial metals such as copper have seen a massive move higher in recent weeks. All of the significant steps higher in the stock markets of global export economies and metals such as Copper and Platinum, are at least pointing to a hint of optimism taking hold suggesting that perhaps the worst of the economic slowdown is behind us.
The US equity market is pointing to a lower opening of about 1 point on the S&P 500. It continues to be my view that equity prices are due for a minor pullback. I think at this point; it is pretty safe to say that I’m obsessive over small details on daily movements of stock prices. However, it is just hard for me to ignore the glaring signs of a brief price decline that is in the works for stocks.
The NASDAQ fell below the rising wedge yesterday, and that would suggest there are still declines on the way, perhaps by as much as 2.5% to 7,300, allowing the index to fill the gap. Again, nothing major, but hard to ignore the possibility.
S&P 500 (SPY)
For now, a zone of support for the S&P 500 comes between 2,750 and 2,760.
Nike is pulling back some this morning after one if sneakers fell apart during the middle of an NCAA basketball. Support for the stock comes at roughly $81.50.
Amazon has struggled in recent days and continues to hug the $1,620 level. I’ve said it before, and I shall repeat it, I still think this one is heading lower with a target for $1,520.
Johnson and Johnson (JNJ)
Johnson and Johnson has been subpoenaed over its baby powder. The stock hit its resistance on at $136.75 and in the short-term, it could drop back to around $131.
Biogen was downgraded this morning to hold from buy at Stifel with a $346 price target. Overall there is a downtrend to this stock and drop to $310 seems to be the most likely path.
Facebook continues to work its way lower trying to fill the gap. The first stop on the chart is $157, and then $148.
Twitter is failing at resistance at $31.90, and that means it may be on its way to $30.20
Have a great day!
Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future results.