This column is my opinion and expresses my views. Those views can change at a moments notice when the market changes. I am not right all the time and I do not expect to be. I disclose all my positions clearly listed on the page, and I do not trade my account on the stocks spoken of in this column unless fully disclosed. If that does not work for you stop reading and close the page. Do not bother me or harass me.
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Michael Kramer and the Clients own shares of Apple, Tesla, NXP
Stocks stalled today, certainly not the steep decline I had thought might start today. UGH, don’t I feel like a genius. But then again, nothing ever happens according to plan. There were some key developments that I think strengthen the thesis and that stocks are due for a minor drop. Like I said yesterday this isn’t the start of some “end of days correction,” just a one or two or maybe three-day pull-back.
Also in case you missed it the Fed minutes were out, I found them interesting. I put together a premium article on a few of the highlights. Fed Minutes Break Down
The NASDAQ did drop outside of the rising wedge today. We also did not recover the days highs. Again, this continues to point to a decline in the index to around 7,430 about 1% lower than its current value.
S&P 500 (SPY)
The S&P 500 was up about 20bps on February 20. We can see the S&P 500 is having trouble at 2,790 and has stalled their multiple times since February 19. We can also see that the S&P 500 closed right on the uptrend. Again, this would suggest that the odds are very high for a pullback to around 2,750
If the market doesn’t pull back and keeps going higher over the next couple of days, then that would make me even more bullish than I had previously been. I guess we have to see.
Copper prices continue to surge and today’s move higher puts the metal on the cusp of a big break out should it rise above $2.91, placing it on a course to $3.01
I had noted on Sunday that it appeared that Oil was on the rise to $57, and today it rose above $57. The next major level of resistance is around $61, and that is where it is likely heading.
Blackberry had its first significant setback in some time failing at resistance at this $8.70ish price region. The good news is that the stock found support around $8.50. But it has to bounce off $8.50, otherwise, we can confirm the uptrend is broken, and that means a steep decline perhaps to around $8.10. Clearly, for now, my luck in Blackberry may have finally run out, and that means a rise to $8.90 is in trouble too.
I wrote a story on AMD today; it is free, you can read it: AMD’s Stock May Jump On Higher GPU Prices. It combines what I have over the past few days about the bullish charts and options. Plus I did some research on trends in GPU prices.
Apple may have broken out today, I think, and I hope that it signals the stock is likely to continue on its way higher towards $182.
Tesla still can’t break out, but it continues to hold $300 like a rock. Something has to give at this point. Either the stock is on its way back to $330 or its has further to fall to $290. There is no in-between anymore.
NXP Semiconductor (NXPI)
NXPI is very close to breaking out, closing a hair below resistance at $94.75. Should a break out occur the stock has room to run towards $106.
The banks are getting closer to that 103 level we talked about a week or so ago on the BKX.
See ya tomorrow
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