The Stock Market Stalls, But Trouble Still Looms on The Horizon

The Stock Market Stalls, But Trouble Still Looms on The Horizon

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Michael Kramer and the Clients own shares of Apple, Tesla, NXP

Stocks stalled today, certainly not the steep decline I had thought might start today. UGH, don’t I feel like a genius. But then again, nothing ever happens according to plan. There were some key developments that I think strengthen the thesis and that stocks are due for a minor drop. Like I said yesterday this isn’t the start of some “end of days correction,” just a one or two or maybe three-day pull-back.

Also in case you missed it the Fed minutes were out, I found them interesting. I put together a premium article on a few of the highlights. Fed Minutes Break Down

NASDAQ (QQQ)

The NASDAQ did drop outside of the rising wedge today. We also did not recover the days highs. Again, this continues to point to a decline in the index to around 7,430 about 1% lower than its current value.

spx, sp500

S&P 500 (SPY)

The S&P 500 was up about 20bps on February 20.  We can see the S&P 500 is having trouble at 2,790 and has stalled their multiple times since February 19.  We can also see that the S&P 500 closed right on the uptrend. Again, this would suggest that the odds are very high for a pullback to around 2,750

S&P 500, spx

If the market doesn’t pull back and keeps going higher over the next couple of days, then that would make me even more bullish than I had previously been.  I guess we have to see.

Copper

Copper prices continue to surge and today’s move higher puts the metal on the cusp of a big break out should it rise above $2.91, placing it on a course to $3.01

copper

Oil

I had noted on Sunday that it appeared that Oil was on the rise to $57, and today it rose above $57. The next major level of resistance is around $61, and that is where it is likely heading.

oil

Blackberry (BB)

Blackberry had its first significant setback in some time failing at resistance at this $8.70ish price region. The good news is that the stock found support around $8.50. But it has to bounce off $8.50, otherwise, we can confirm the uptrend is broken, and that means a steep decline perhaps to around $8.10. Clearly, for now, my luck in Blackberry may have finally run out, and that means a rise to $8.90 is in trouble too.

blackberry, bb

AMD

I wrote a story on AMD today; it is free, you can read it: AMD’s Stock May Jump On Higher GPU Prices. It combines what I have over the past few days about the bullish charts and options. Plus I did some research on trends in GPU prices.

Apple

Apple may have broken out today, I think, and I hope that it signals the stock is likely to continue on its way higher towards $182.

apple, aapl

Tesla

Tesla still can’t break out, but it continues to hold $300 like a rock.  Something has to give at this point. Either the stock is on its way back to $330 or its has further to fall to $290. There is no in-between anymore.

tesla

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NXP Semiconductor (NXPI)

NXPI is very close to breaking out, closing a hair below resistance at $94.75. Should a break out occur the stock has room to run towards $106.

nxpi, nxpi

Banks

The banks are getting closer to that 103 level we talked about a week or so ago on the BKX.

banks

See ya tomorrow

-Mike

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This report contains independent commentary to be used for informational and educational purposes only. Michael Kramer is a member and investment adviser representative with Mott Capital Management. Mr. Kramer is not affiliated with this company and does not serve on the board of any related company that issued this stock. All opinions and analyses presented by Michael Kramer in this analysis or market report are solely Michael Kramer’s views. Readers should not treat any opinion, viewpoint, or prediction expressed by Michael Kramer as a specific solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a particular security or follow a particular strategy. Michael Kramer’s analyses are based upon information and independent research that he considers reliable, but neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Michael Kramer is not under any obligation to update or correct any information presented in his analyses. Mr. Kramer’s statements, guidance, and opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment commentary presented in this analysis. Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investments or strategies mentioned in this analysis may not be suitable for you. This material does not consider your particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs and is not intended as a recommendation appropriate for you. You must make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies in this analysis. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Before acting on information in this analysis, you should consider whether it is suitable for your circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser to determine the suitability of any investment.