This Is Why Stocks May Fall On February 20, But Don't Expect It To Last

This Is Why Stocks May Fall On February 20, But Don’t Expect It To Last

This column is my opinion and expresses my views. Those views can change at a moments notice when the market changes. I am not right all the time and I do not expect to be. I disclose all my positions clearly listed on the page, and I do not trade my account on the stocks spoken of in this column unless fully disclosed. If that does not work for you stop reading and close the page. Do not bother me or harass me.

Otherwise, enjoy the column!

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Trading Session for February 20, 2019

Michael Kramer and the clients of Mott Capital own Cisco, Tesla, Netflix

U.S. Markets:

  • S&P 500 Futures are ponting to a 2 point decline on February 20
  • US 10-Year: 2.63%
  • Oil: $55.84 -$0.25
  • VIX: 15.15
  • Dollar Index: 96.61

International Markets:

  • Japan Nikkei: +0.60%
  • China Shanghai: +0.20%
  • Hong Kong Hang Seng: +1.01%
  • South Korea Kospi: +1.09%
  • UK FTSE: +0.15%
  • German DAX: +0.29%
  • German 10-Year Bund: 0.095%
  • Japanese 10-Yr JGB: -0.04%

Global Growth Proxies

  • Copper: +0.19% $2.88
  • Platinum: +0.84% $827.90
  • Silver : +0.43% $16.03

Key Event:

  1. FED Minutes today at 2 PM
  2. BOJ may ease further
  3. ECB may lend more to banks

International Trading:

South Korea KOSPI

Equities in Korea rose over 1%, and now the Kospi is breaking out. It further strengthens the narrative that global equity prices are still in full rally mode. The Kospi could rise to nearly to 2,360.

south korea

Singapore STI

You can add Singapore to your list of international stock markets that are breaking out.


U.S. Trading

S&P 500 (SPY)

S&P futures are pointing to a slightly lower opening. But as I said last night my expectations are for a pullback on the S&P 500 for a decline to roughly 2,750 to 2,760, about 1%. As I have said, I think it would  be a one or two-day event. Nothing earth-shaking. Hopefully, I will be proven wrong.

S&p 500

Tesla (TSLA)

According to Electrek Tesla is going to start offering Model 3 leases. Additionally, it is estimated that Tesla is shipping 4,000 Model 3 to Europe.  The Bloomberg Model 3 tracker suggests that Model 3 production is now trending well over 6,000 cars per week, there model has been very accurate. 

The stock looks like it ready for a big break out sending it to $330. I know, I have said this before, over the last two weeks, but the odds seem to be improving.

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tesla model 3

Cisco (CSCO)

Cisco issued a report that states mobile data usage is about to explode through the year 2022. Cisco broke out rising above resistance at $49.30, and that level should act as support on a long-term rise towards $55.

cisco, csco

Qualcomm (QCOM)

Qualcomm has this falling wedge pattern in it. It would suggest to me that the stock is will be breaking out soon enough with the potential to rise back to $57. Who was it that put out that big short-report about three weeks ago?  Not looking so good at the moment. Nothing like putting on a short at the lows. Ouch!

qualcomm, qcom

Freeport (FCX)

Freeport is ripping higher again, and as long as copper goes up, so will this one with $13.80 on the horizon.

freeport, fcx

Netflix (NFLX)

Will today be the day that Netflix breaks out? I don’t know. I’m beginning to think a breakout does not occur and instead the stock falls back to $345.

netflix, nflx

Micron (MU)

Micron is getting ready for its next move higher towards $45.50.

micron, mu


Some decent size call buying yesterday in the AMD April 24 calls, with open interest rising by nearly 10,000 contracts.  The calls were bought for about $2.25, and that would suggest the stock rises above $26.25 by the middle of April. The chart does suggest a  break out may be coming.


until this afternoon!


Photo From Flickr 

February 20

Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future results. trading  February 20