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Week of March 11
Michael Kramer and the clients of Mott Capital own Netflix and Alphabet
The week of March 11 will be a busy one for economic data with China, UK, and German industrial productions. US Retail Sales on Monday, US Industrial Production on Friday, plus CPI and PPI’s mid-week. It is enough to get the market moving one or another.
The Tides Turn
A lot has changed in just a few days. Believe or not, it was only last week that I had thought stocks –for the most part, could continue to rise over the short-term. But we never got those big market break out we had been looking for, and instead, stocks have weakened, which has caused some of my ideas from last week to fail miserably or forced me to reverse my prior views. Of course, I would rather be right more than wrong, but last week proved to be more challenging than previous weeks. So we can only try again, and see how things go.
The most significant risk continues to be to the downside at the moment. Asian markets, especially, South Korea, Hong Kong, and China are all suggests a short-term pullback is likely warranted. Again, I continue to believe this just all part of a healthy pullback in the longer-term rising market.
S&P 500 (SPY)
The S&P 500 had a nice lift on Friday into the close, but as I mentioned at that time, it looked merely like a gap fill. I continue to believe that the S&P 500 heads lower throughout the next few days. The next level of support to watch for is 2,716.
Russell 2000 (IWM)
The Russell finished the week at a weak level of technical support around 1,521. I don’t expect that level to hold, and that may lead to a decline to the next level of support around 1,490
Amazon fell below support at $1,620, and that means $1,620 now becomes resistance. The stock has failed four times at the downtrend (the upper red-line). Additionally, the RSI continues to trend lower as well. That would suggest that the stock continues its decline to the next level of support at 1,520.
Netflix fell below support, and this one is trending towards $337 over the short-term.
Micron managed to bounce off technical support around $36.50. I think the stock can bounce higher to around $40 in the coming days.
A couple of request for Ulta, the chart looks messy to me. There is also the makings of a triple top, a bearish reversal pattern. A drop to $289 seems likely, but an even steeper drop to around $250 seems like a very good possibility as well.
Alphabet (GOOG, GOOGL)
Alphabet failed at its downtrend, and now it is nearing a technical breakdown. A drop below $1,138 could trigger a decline to $1,091.
Lastly, I continue to think Nvidia heads lower towards $139.
Good Luck this week!
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