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Subscribe →Stocks finished the day lower, following hotter-than-expected PPI data and some commentary from Jay Powell that caused traders to pare back bets on December and January rate cuts. The market now sees the next rate cut not coming until March.
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All of the talk from the Fed speakers the last few days seems to center around them going slower and being able to take their time when heading to the neutral rate. The neutral rate, of course, is just a fantasy number that is talked about, but no one has a clue where it is. Based on the price action of risk assets, one would think that policy is easy. However, according to Powell, the policy is restrictive because the unemployment rate has risen and the labor market has loosened.
So, let’s say the Fed Funds neutral rate is around 3 to 3.5%. This probably means that the 10-year rate and yields still have much further to climb from current levels. If the 10-year rate gets to 300 bps higher than Fed Funds, it will have to rise to at least 6%.
Assuming inflation breakeven stays at 2 to 2.5%, the 10-year real yield will be 3.5 to 4%. Whether they stay anchored, of course, is another story. To say that the 2-year inflation swap is on the cusp of making a big move may be an understatement at this point. But, a breakout could be of epic proportions, and more importantly, it carries much meaning behind it.
For now, the path higher in the 10-year period appears to be on track.
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In the meantime, the dollar index continues to soar. It was chillin’ most of today, but once Powell started speaking and rate cuts were dialed back, the dollar took off. Just look at the move in the 5-year euro/USD basis swap spread. The funding cost for dollars appears to be rising at a breakneck pace.
So, for now, the dollar also finds itself incredibly well positioned to break out above the 107.25 level. If the dollar breaks out here the amount of pain it is about to inflect on the equity market will be rather stunning.
So we wait.
-Mike
Charts used with the permission of Bloomberg Finance L.P. This report contains independent commentary to be used for informational and educational purposes only. Michael Kramer is a member and investment adviser representative with Mott Capital Management. Mr. Kramer is not affiliated with this company and does not serve on the board of any related company that issued this stock. All opinions and analyses presented by Michael Kramer in this analysis or market report are solely Michael Kramer’s views. Readers should not treat any opinion, viewpoint, or prediction expressed by Michael Kramer as a specific solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a particular security or follow a particular strategy. Michael Kramer’s analyses are based upon information and independent research that he considers reliable, but neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Michael Kramer is not under any obligation to update or correct any information presented in his analyses. Mr. Kramer’s statements, guidance, and opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment commentary presented in this analysis. Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investments or strategies mentioned in this analysis may not be suitable for you. This material does not consider your particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs and is not intended as a recommendation appropriate for you. You must make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies in this analysis. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Before acting on information in this analysis, you should consider whether it is suitable for your circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser to determine the suitability of any investment.
This report contains independent commentary to be used for informational and educational purposes only. Michael Kramer is a member and investment adviser representative with Mott Capital Management. Mr. Kramer is not affiliated with this company and does not serve on the board of any related company that issued this stock. All opinions and analyses presented by Michael Kramer in this analysis or market report are solely Michael Kramer’s views. Readers should not treat any opinion, viewpoint, or prediction expressed by Michael Kramer as a specific solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a particular security or follow a particular strategy. Michael Kramer’s analyses are based upon information and independent research that he considers reliable, but neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Michael Kramer is not under any obligation to update or correct any information presented in his analyses. Mr. Kramer’s statements, guidance, and opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment commentary presented in this analysis. Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investments or strategies mentioned in this analysis may not be suitable for you. This material does not consider your particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs and is not intended as a recommendation appropriate for you. You must make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies in this analysis. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Before acting on information in this analysis, you should consider whether it is suitable for your circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser to determine the suitability of any investment.
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Mott Capital's Market Chronicles May 15, 2026 1:45 PM