Subscribe to receive this daily commentary directly in your email
https://youtu.be/T8sQXOvzXWM
CPI came in as expected today, but that didn’t stop long-end rates from rising, with the 30-year up six bps and the 10-year up two bps. The dollar index also continued to melt up after the data, showing that core CPI remains sticky after a 0.3% m/m increase.
The bigger question for core CPI is whether some trend change is taking place. It’s unclear at this point, but the annualized 3-month rate of change for core CPI rose by 3.6%.
Navigating The Market · By Michael Kramer Independent macro and options research, published every trading day. Daily written analysis covering gamma exposure, dealer flows, key levels, and the macro drivers moving markets. Includes full video access. Recent Subscriber Analysis
Whatever the case, the 30-year closed at its highest level since early July. This looks like an important potential breakout that, depending on tomorrow’s PPI report, could push the 30-year even higher.
Meanwhile, the dollar index made its highest close since November 2023 and is approaching the 107.25 level, which is of incredible importance. A breakout means the highs of 2022 could be in play.
This is wreaking havoc across hard assets as real yields rise and commodities like gold and oil drop. Gold broke another support level today and an uptrend and could open a path to $2,500.
Copper is at support, too, and a break of $4.05 opens a path to around $3.90.
The Market Chronicles · Video Membership The daily market commentary, delivered in video. Same daily market analysis, in video form — available to YouTube channel members only. Latest Videos
The Housing Index (HGX) saw a gain of nearly 1.4% evaporate over the day as rates rose. Rising rates will not be friendly to mortgages or the housing sectors.
In the meantime, stocks have yet to get the memo that rates are rising and may head significantly higher from here. The S&P 500 was basically flat on the day and has stalled at resistance for now.
The only question that remains is when credit spreads snap and start to widen. When they do, that will be the point at which stocks begin to finally cave.
-Mike
Charts used with the permission of Bloomberg Finance L.P. This report contains independent commentary to be used for informational and educational purposes only. Michael Kramer is a member and investment adviser representative with Mott Capital Management. Mr. Kramer is not affiliated with this company and does not serve on the board of any related company that issued this stock. All opinions and analyses presented by Michael Kramer in this analysis or market report are solely Michael Kramer’s views. Readers should not treat any opinion, viewpoint, or prediction expressed by Michael Kramer as a specific solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a particular security or follow a particular strategy. Michael Kramer’s analyses are based upon information and independent research that he considers reliable, but neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Michael Kramer is not under any obligation to update or correct any information presented in his analyses. Mr. Kramer’s statements, guidance, and opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment commentary presented in this analysis. Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investments or strategies mentioned in this analysis may not be suitable for you. This material does not consider your particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs and is not intended as a recommendation appropriate for you. You must make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies in this analysis. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Before acting on information in this analysis, you should consider whether it is suitable for your circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser to determine the suitability of any investment.
This report contains independent commentary to be used for informational and educational purposes only. Michael Kramer is a member and investment adviser representative with Mott Capital Management. Mr. Kramer is not affiliated with this company and does not serve on the board of any related company that issued this stock. All opinions and analyses presented by Michael Kramer in this analysis or market report are solely Michael Kramer’s views. Readers should not treat any opinion, viewpoint, or prediction expressed by Michael Kramer as a specific solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a particular security or follow a particular strategy. Michael Kramer’s analyses are based upon information and independent research that he considers reliable, but neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Michael Kramer is not under any obligation to update or correct any information presented in his analyses. Mr. Kramer’s statements, guidance, and opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment commentary presented in this analysis. Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investments or strategies mentioned in this analysis may not be suitable for you. This material does not consider your particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs and is not intended as a recommendation appropriate for you. You must make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies in this analysis. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Before acting on information in this analysis, you should consider whether it is suitable for your circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser to determine the suitability of any investment.
The Dispersion Spread Cracks And Gamma Flips Sending Stocks Lower
Mott Capital's Market Chronicles June 5, 2026 12:03 PM