MICHAEL KRAMER AND CLIENTS OF MOTT CAPITAL OWN AAPL, NFLX, TSLA
S&P 500 (SP500, SPX)
Stocks continued to rise today, despite the bears best effort to weigh the stock market down. The S&P 500 continued to advance, and the next level of technical resistance still rest around at 2,752.
Nvidia took a significant beating today, as well it should. The quarter was a disaster and so was the guidance. The stock was down 19%. Analysts have taken down their fourth quarter earnings estimates by 31% and revenue estimates by 21%. Full-year estimates fell sharply. Despite the steep decline it is still trading at 19 times 2020 earnings estimates of $8.19. Earnings estimates for next year have only dropped 5.6% and revenue by 4.4%. These number probably still have even further to fall.
The stock isn’t cheap by a long shot not when compared to other semi stocks. This stock probably trades with a sub 15 earnings multiple like most of the other big chip companies.
A break below $160 sends the stock to $139.50.
Amazon can’t get over $1620; it is incredible to see. I think the longer its stay under $1620 the more likely the odds the stock heads lower. I know this is a change from where we stood last week, but we do not live in a static environment, and we need to adjust our thinking.
Netflix has been stuck at this $285 region for far too long. Now I’m starting to get worried about this as well. But there is a long-term uptrend on the way that needs to lift this stock higher. If this uptrend is broken, I’m going to start getting really worried.
Apple is nearing a break out which may mean the stock is on its way towards $209.
Micron is nearing a make or break moment. If it can rise above resistance at $40.25, then perhaps it has room to increase to $42. But I’m not sure that can happen. The RSI is still trending lower. So a decline to $36.30 seems more likely.
10-year rates are sitting on the neckline of a major break down. Should yields fall below 3.06, then 3% is next, and a double-top in yields has been confirmed.
Tesla is nearing a break out at $360, and should it rise above that price it will be trading near or above its all-time by year-end, the RSI is trending higher, and its supports higher prices.
Intel is nearing a big break out too, and should it rise above $49 it is on its way to $51.
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apple, tesla, intel, nvidia, micron, amazon