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Michael Kramer and the clients of Mott Capital own shares of ACAD, SWKS
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S&P 500 (SPX, SP500)
How ’bout that stocks can go up after all? I nearly forgot I was beginning to think they could only go down. Today was the best day we have seen since, well, November 8. Does it last? I think it does. I was very encouraged by today’s price action in the S&P 500. The index managed to test support from yesterday lows right away. It held, and we rebounded the balance of the day. We rose above a 5-day downtrend and surpassed technical resistance at 2,716. Even better the bears tested that support late in the day and it held. I think that sets the stage for a rise 2750.
NASDAQ (QQQ, NDX)
Additionally, the NASDAQ looks like it may be on its way higher towards 7,350.
Russell 2000 (RUT, IWO)
The Russell 2000, also broke its downtrend.
Nvidia (NVDA)
Nvidia just reported results. Wow! This one may be finished. Seriously. The company is guiding earnings at $1.32 to $1.49 for the fourth quarter versus estimates of $2.01? Wow. In the fourth quarter last year they reported $1.72. Revenue is guided to $2.7 billion at the mid-point versus estimates of $3.4 billion, are you kidding? Last year they did $2.9 billion. So are you seriously paying 22 times one year forward earnings for a chip company with not even slowing growth, not flat, but declining revenue and earnings y/y? No way. Look at Skyworks, Qorvo, Broadcom, Micron, and every other chip company trades low double digits.
The street was not prepared for this, I have written over and over again, that every other chip was getting estimates cut, but not Nvidia.Â
$169 was support, but the stock is trading $165 after hours. Next support comes at $158, then its around $140. Yikes! Can’t say I wasn’t surprised. Wrote about on November 13.Â
Amazon (AMZN)
Amazon, I still have a great deal of concern for here. It can’t get over $1620. The upside may be limited to around $1680, while the downside is about $1450.
AMD
AMD is going to down right along with Nvidia. A drop below $20 on AMD gets it rolling towards $16.
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[youtube-feed feed=7]Acadia (ACAD)
Acadia went up too! How about that. Perhaps the recent decline was merely a retest of the breakout. The RSI is still firmly rising.
Facebook (FB)
More Facebook fallout today. It seems like these Facebook stories get worse and worse all the time. $140 is a crucial level. A break below that means $133.
That enough for today!
-Mike
Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Nvidia, amazon, sp500, nasdaq, amazon, amd, facebook
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Charts used with the permission of Bloomberg Finance L.P. This report contains independent commentary to be used for informational and educational purposes only. Michael Kramer is a member and investment adviser representative with Mott Capital Management. Mr. Kramer is not affiliated with this company and does not serve on the board of any related company that issued this stock. All opinions and analyses presented by Michael Kramer in this analysis or market report are solely Michael Kramer’s views. Readers should not treat any opinion, viewpoint, or prediction expressed by Michael Kramer as a specific solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a particular security or follow a particular strategy. Michael Kramer’s analyses are based upon information and independent research that he considers reliable, but neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Michael Kramer is not under any obligation to update or correct any information presented in his analyses. Mr. Kramer’s statements, guidance, and opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment commentary presented in this analysis. Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investments or strategies mentioned in this analysis may not be suitable for you. This material does not consider your particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs and is not intended as a recommendation appropriate for you. You must make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies in this analysis. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Before acting on information in this analysis, you should consider whether it is suitable for your circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser to determine the suitability of any investment.