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The BTFP program at the Fed is draining, and that means that reserves balances are likely heading lower from here, and that could create a liquidity challenge for the market.

Credit spreads are starting to widen, and that needs to be watched closely.

Stocks could be in for a strange week of trading starting with a lunar eclipse on March 25 and ending with a Jay Powell Q&A session on March 29, a day the market is closed.

Stocks and the dollar rise following weak central bank actions.

Stocks rose today as the implied volatility fell sharply during the FOMC press conference, as previously noted.

The VIX fell on March 19, but the VIX 1-day rose ahead of the FOMC meeting.

Stocks rallied on March 18 ahead of the Bank of Japan and Federal Reserve policy decisions later this week.

The Bank of Japan will be on Tuesday to make a decision on monetary policy followed by the Fed on Wednesday.

Stocks fell on March 14, 2024 as a hot PPI report sent interest rates and the dollar sharply higher.

Stocks fell today, but commodities prices were breaking out all over the place as inflation risk coming back to life.

Stocks rose today as Implied volatility fell sharply despite rising rates and hotter CPI.

CPI inflation swaps are pricing in a hot CPI report on March 12 and the equity market moved implied volatility sharply higher today.

The CPI report is due to come on Tuesday, and swaps are pricing in a hotter than expected report for February.

The AI mania appears to be running the asylum.

Stocks bounced back on March 5, 2024 after Jay Powell gave pretty dull commentary in front of Congress.

Stocks dropped on March 5, one day ahead of Jay Powell Congressional testimony.

Stocks fell on Monday March 4 with losses offset by Nvidia.

It is a big week of market moving data including the job report, and Jay Powell, but perhaps more important is Broadcom for the AI hopefuls.