This column is my opinion and expresses my views. Those views can change at a moments notice when the market changes. I am not right all the time and I do not expect to be. I disclose all my positions clearly listed on the page, and I do not trade my account on the stocks spoken of in this column unless fully disclosed. If that does not work for you stop reading and close the page. Do not bother me or harass me.
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MAY 4, 2020
STOCKS: MSFT, AMZN, WFC, QCOM, DIS
MACRO: SPY, EWG, TLT
MIKE’S READING THE MARKET PREMIUM CONTENT
- Volatility May Be High With Significant Downside Risk Starting This Week
- Many Signs Point To Lower Equity Prices
- Earnings Continue To Detoratiate
- A Significant Number Of Uptrends Have Broken
- Volatility Rising – Morning Commentary
- Understanding On Close Imbalances
MICHAEL KRAMER AND THE CLIENTS OF MOTT CAPITAL OWN MSFT
Stocks are falling on May 4, with the S&P 500 ETF’s suggesting a drop of 1%. Selling overseas is a bit worse, but then again, their markets were closed on Friday, so those markets are playing a game of catch-up.
At the moment, Germany is holding a critical level of support round 10,390.
S&P 500 (SPY)
S&P 500 futures are falling, and currently trading around 2,800. This is a pretty significant level based on options positioning. It also means that the great there is a great deal of risk here, with the next significant level of support coming around 2,730. Additionally, the uptrend in the RSI has been broken at this point, and it suggests that the bullish momentum we have seen has shifted back to being bearish. I went over this all in much more detail in the premium area – Volatility May Be High With Significant Downside Risk Starting This Week
Again, I have now said several times; I have a great deal of concern over what the 10-Year Treasury is suggesting.
Qualcomm was initiated today by Wells Fargo with an underweight rating and a $70 price target. Again, nothing has changed here in my view, and I continue to think shares fall to around $65.
Disney was downgraded by MoffettNathanson with a $112 price target. Again, I think this one still falls further to $92.85.
Wells Fargo (WFC)
Wells Fargo was downgraded to Sell from Neutral at UBS. The price target was also trimmed to $19 from $21. The pattern in Wells is very bearish, with the drop below $26.00 trigger a very sharp sell-off.
Amazon is testing the uptrend this morning with a break sending the stock back to $2,090.
Again, I continue to think Microsoft goes back to $161.
Have a good one!
Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and, unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future results.