MAY 4, 2020

STOCKS: MSFT, AMZN, WFC, QCOM, DIS

MACRO: SPY, EWG, TLT

MIKE’S READING THE MARKET PREMIUM CONTENT 

• Volatility May Be High With Significant Downside Risk Starting This Week
• Many Signs Point To Lower Equity Prices
• Earnings Continue To Detoratiate
• A Significant Number Of Uptrends Have Broken
• Volatility Rising – Morning Commentary
• Understanding On Close Imbalances

MICHAEL KRAMER AND THE CLIENTS OF MOTT CAPITAL OWN MSFT

Stocks are falling on May 4, with the S&P 500 ETF’s suggesting a drop of 1%. Selling overseas is a bit worse, but then again, their markets were closed on Friday, so those markets are playing a game of catch-up. 

Germany (DAX)

At the moment, Germany is holding a critical level of support round 10,390.

S&P 500 (SPY)

S&P 500 futures are falling, and currently trading around 2,800. This is a pretty significant level based on options positioning. It also means that the great there is a great deal of risk here, with the next significant level of support coming around 2,730. Additionally, the uptrend in the RSI has been broken at this point, and it suggests that the bullish momentum we have seen has shifted back to being bearish.  I went over this all in much more detail in the premium area – Volatility May Be High With Significant Downside Risk Starting This Week

US 10-Year

Again, I have now said several times; I have a great deal of concern over what the 10-Year Treasury is suggesting. 

Qualcomm (QCOM)

Qualcomm was initiated today by Wells Fargo with an underweight rating and a $70 price target. Again, nothing has changed here in my view, and I continue to think shares fall to around $65. 

Disney (DIS)

Disney was downgraded by MoffettNathanson with a $112 price target. Again, I think this one still falls further to $92.85.

Wells Fargo (WFC)

Wells Fargo was downgraded to Sell from Neutral at UBS. The price target was also trimmed to $19 from $21. The pattern in Wells is very bearish, with the drop below $26.00 trigger a very sharp sell-off. 

Amazon (AMZN)

Amazon is testing the uptrend this morning with a break sending the stock back to $2,090.

Microsoft (MSFT)

Again, I continue to think Microsoft goes back to $161.

Have a good one!

-Mike

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