Stocks were hit hard today, as rates and the dollar surged.
Category: Monster Market Commentary
Stocks Defy Market Logic as Volatility and Credit Signals Flash Caution
Stocks have been rising despite unusual market signals, including increasing implied volatility, widening credit spreads, and significant FX movements. This analysis explores why these conflicting indicators may hint at an impending market pullback, particularly examining key technical levels for the S&P 500 and Taiwan Semiconductor ahead of earnings.
Tariff Turmoil Sparks Dollar Breakout and Yield Surge as Stocks Near Peak
Tariff tensions drive a significant dollar breakout and a surge in long-term yields, hinting at increasing inflation expectations. As stocks approach a potential peak, technical indicators signal caution ahead of earnings season.
Stocks Decline as Tariff Uncertainty Returns; Dollar Signals Potential Reversal
Stocks declined after President Trump announced new 25% tariffs effective August 1 for countries including Japan and South Korea, increasing market uncertainty. Meanwhile, the dollar index is signaling a potential reversal higher, suggesting volatility could rise further in coming days.
What Does the Taiwan Dollar Know That the S&P 500 Doesn’t?
📉 Global currencies are moving in one direction, U.S. stocks in another. Who’s right? In today’s video, I break down the major divergence between the equity markets and global currencies like the Taiwan dollar, Korean won, and Swiss franc. While the S&P 500 pushes to new highs, the U.S. dollar is weakening almost everywhere. What …
Market Shrugs Off Weak ADP Data Ahead of June Jobs Report
Tomorrow is Job's Friday, except it only be Thursday.
Market Rotation Sends Mixed Signals
A clear rotation hit markets today as the Nasdaq dipped and the equal-weight S&P 500 surged. Key ratios suggest caution ahead, highlighting historical patterns tied to previous market pullbacks.
Trump as Shadow Fed Chair? Liquidity Tightens, Markets Defy Gravity—for Now
President Trump appears to have appointed himself the unofficial “Shadow Fed Chair,” pushing for much lower overnight rates. With liquidity conditions tightening and bond markets hinting at slowing growth, stock indices like the S&P 500 and NASDAQ are flashing overbought signals. This week’s economic data could reveal whether markets remain resilient or face renewed volatility.
Market at Extremes as Volatility Vanishes and Nvidia Runs Hot
Markets enter a short yet data-packed week dangerously overbought, driven by Nvidia’s relentless climb despite tightening liquidity conditions. With implied volatility suspiciously low ahead of critical economic data and rising trade rhetoric, investors may be underestimating potential turbulence. Meanwhile, gold’s breakdown could signal deeper trouble ahead.
Stocks Drift Higher Amid Weak Volume as Dollar and Yields Slide On Lousy Data
Stocks rose modestly on low volume as volatility remains compressed and investors position cautiously ahead of looming tariff deadlines and weaker data.
Stocks Drift as Nvidia Stretches Limits Ahead of Quarter-End Liquidity Crunch
Stocks stall amid declining volumes, as Nvidia becomes increasingly overbought. Rising repo rates signal tightening liquidity pressures ahead of quarter-end.
Market Whiplash as Volatility Surges and Liquidity Tightens Ahead
Interesting times in the stock market. At 1 PM yesterday, it seemed the world was on the verge of collapse as the S&P 500 tested 5,950, seemingly poised to head straight for the JPM collar. Xers were tweeting that the Strait of Hormuz was closing, declaring oil would soon hit $150. They even shared charts …
Stocks Swing Wildly Amid Volatility Drop, Oil Plunge, and The Dollar
Stocks swung wildly amid low liquidity, driven by Tesla’s sharp rally. Volatility fell sharply as geopolitical tensions eased, while key currency pairs reversed intraday and Treasury yields held critical support.
Oil Surges, Rates Rise, and NASDAQ Faces Downside Risks – The Week Ahead
Oil surges from US-Iran conflict fuel inflation fears & rising rates. NASDAQ faces downside as technicals and post-OpEx volatility amplify market risks.
Stocks Flat, Rates Rise as Fed Cuts Growth Forecast and Sees Higher Inflation Ahead
Stocks Flat as Fed Projects Slower Growth, Higher Inflation and Unemployment
Stocks Drop With More To Come…
Stocks fell today and they may be more to come..
S&P 500 Faces Critical Retest as Volatility Expands
Stocks were higher on the day, and so was realized volatility.
Liquidity Crunch Ahead: Tax Payments and Quarter-End Dynamics Threaten Market Stability
Quarterly Taxes are due this week.
Stocks Are Trapped as Volatility Signals Flash Red
It was another low-volatility, low-volume trading session for S&P 500 futures, with the cash market rising by about 40 bps on the day. As noted yesterday, the 40 bps gain resulted in 10-day realized volatility finishing at 6.85, slightly down from 6.86 yesterday. Essentially, realized volatility has nowhere to go from here unless we start …
Trump Tariff Talk Sparks Euro Breakout, Oil Eyes Mid-$70s as Stocks Drift Lower
stocks fall as tariff talks heat back up.