The Chip Stocks May Lead The Stock Market Lower on January 17

The Chip Stocks May Lead The Stock Market Lower on January 17

This column is my opinion and expresses my views. Those views can change at a moments notice when the market changes. I am not right all the time and I do not expect to be. I disclose all my positions clearly listed on the page, and I do not trade my account on the stocks spoken of in this column unless fully disclosed. If that does not work for you stop reading and close the page. Do not bother me or harass me.

Otherwise, enjoy the column!

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Today is Thursday, January 17

  • S&P 500 futures are pointing to a lower opening of 11.5 points as of 8:30 AM
  • The US 10-year rate is at 2.71%
  • Dollar Index is at 96.04
  • WTI Crude Oil is $51.62
  • Gold:$1,294
  • VIX: 19.26
  • Critical events for today: Netflix Reports 4Q Results, Consensus EPS Est. $0.24, Revenue Est. $4.207, Netflix guided 4Q Sub Adds at +9.4 Million.  More ZTE/Huawei  Concerns

Recap of International Trading:

  • Hong Kong Hang Seng Index 0.54%
  • Japan – 0.20%
  • China Shanghai Comp.-0.42%
  • UK FTSE – 0.50%
  • Dax -0.31%

Rate Hike Watch

The odds of no rate hikes through January 2020 have increased to roughly 67%. Meanwhile, the odds of rate cut in 2019 is at 21%

(CME Group)


In economic news, Jim Foote CEO of CSX noted on the company’s conference call:  Over the past few days, I have spoken to a number of large customers across different industries. General customer feedback has been positive and it’s consistent with the demand levels we are seeing today. While it’s hard to ignore the volatility in equity markets, I cannot call out any trend in our business today that would point to a significant slowdown in our business.

S&P 500 (SPY)

Stocks are pointing to a lower opening on January 17, a reflection of the weakness in the global markets.  There is an unfilled gap in the S&P 500 chart down at 2,610, and that could offer technical support. But the next major level of support doesn’t come until around 2,595.

s&P 500, spy


The semiconductor sector is breaking down, and the SMH is falling below support $89.70. This sector is likely to weigh on the broader market. There is also an unfilled gap around $88.

Weak revenue guidance out of Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) is not likely to help the group either. The company gave first quarter revenue guidance of $7.35 billion at the mid-point, below estimates of $8.08 billion.  The company cited a slower economy, mobile seasonality, and high inventory levels in the supply chain. 

semiconductor, smh

Apple (AAPL)

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Apple shares are falling slightly in the premarket on reports the company would reduce hiring in some division due to weak iPhone sales.  It doesn’t sound as bad as the first reports nor does it feel like a big deal to me. $155 continues to be resistance.

apple, aapl

Morgan Stanley (MS)

Morgan Stanley is falling sharply today after reporting weaker than expected fourth quarter results. The company reported earnings of $0.80 versus estimates of $0.89 on revenue of $8.55 billion versus estimates of $9.32 billion.  These results follow what were already sharply reduced estimates. Those expectations were not lowered enough.
MS EPS Estimates for Current Quarter Chart

MS EPS Estimates for Current Quarter data by YCharts

Back into the downtrend, this stock shall go, and where it stops, no one shall know…but it could be $34 though.

Morgan Stanley, ms

NXP Semiconductor (NXPI)

NXP was upgraded today by Nomura to a buy from a neutral with a $95 price target. The upside for now seems to be at about $89.


Finally, I can’t help but notice that some have seemed to identify the current level of the “market”  as being critical.  So I am not unique here. 

Not sure what it means, but it does give me pause that perhaps the market is due to rise further. Expect the unexpected.


#Factor_Members #Classical_Charting_101 Russell is kissing the underbelly of the beast. Be alert for a selling set up. $RUT $RTY_F

From a technical perspective, we care about these pivot ranges because traders are often “anchored” to those price levels and are prone to make changes at that same level. As you can see in the following chart, the $2640 range is also the 50% retracement level of last year’s decline. If we were trying to project where the market will pause (even temporarily) that price range would be a good estimate. News that looks bad for the housing market could make traders even more jumpy, which increases the potential for a reversal at this level.
Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future results.