This column is my opinion and expresses my views. Those views can change at a moments notice when the market changes. I am not right all the time and I do not expect to be. I disclose all my positions clearly listed on the page, and I do not trade my account on the stocks spoken of in this column unless fully disclosed. If that does not work for you stop reading and close the page. Do not bother me or harass me.
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MICHAEL KRAMER AND THE CLIENTS OF MOTT CAPITAL OWN NFLX, AAPL, MA, V, TSLA
The stock market rebounded today, with the S&P 500 rising nearly 5%, and the Nasdaq almost 6%. That’s what happens when the algo’s switch the other way. You think I’m kidding; I am not. This is what we have to contend with now as investors, and sometimes that is why patience is needed. I am quite confident that nothing materially changed from Friday and Monday’s bloodbath to today’s epic rally.
Will the rally last? Well see, I’m not convinced that today marked the end of the volatility. The good news is that S&P 500 broke a horrible down that had been in place since December 12. 2,500 is likely the next level of support, while support is around 2,440.
I would not be surprised if we get a substantial rally back to around 2,630 over the first few weeks of the year. But of course, the stock market will not want Chairman Powell to get too comfortable before the January FOMC meeting. That’s my guess.
Russell 2000
The Russell also cleared some key downtrends and resistance levels and could climb to around 1,344.
Housing Sector
The HGX housing sector closed right at technical resistance around 240. If we can clear that hurdle tomorrow, then I think the broader market will have some more room to run.
Oil
Oil found a meaningful bounce off of support at$42, and rise to around $50 before running into trouble again.
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Netflix (NFLX)
Netflix got close to filling the gap, and I’m just wondering if it was close enough. It would be a big positive should the stock retake 270. I talked about subscriber trends in my an article for the premium section. Netflix Subscriber Trends Appear Bullish
Apple (AAPL)
Apple could be on its way to resistance around $164. I’d like to see the stock close above that level on month end.
Mastercard (MA)
Mastercard cleared key technical support around $185 today and could be moving to $194. They gave good news showing that retail sales grew 5.1% this holiday season, the best in six years! Yeah, and there is a recession coming, right. It doesn’t sound like a recession is happening to me. Obviously, this would be a good read through for Visa as well. Mastercard also noted that e-commerce sales increase over 19%, a good sign for Amazon.
Amazon (AMZN)
Amazon’s stock rose 10%, it cleared resistance around $1450 and now is likely on its way to about $1550.
Tesla (TSLA)
Tesla had a big day rising over 10%, this stock was one of the last ones to fall during the sell-off, and I see no reason for it not to increase back to $360. Usually, everyone would be worrying model 3 numbers, but with the market turmoil, nobody even cares about Tesla.
Until tomorrow.
-Mike
Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
stock market, amazon, netflix, tesla, mastercard, visa, apple