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2019 is nearly here, and that means it is time to roll out my ten predictions for the new year. As I did last year, I will start with number 10 and work our way up to number 1 over the last month of 2018. Enjoy!
Prediction #7 – The U.S. Dollar Will Weaken in 2019
With the Fed likely on hold in 2019 and U.S. Treasury yield likely heading lower (read prediction 10 and 8), the dollar is likely to see a significant weakening in 2019. The dollar has stopped rising since the beginning of November and has stalled out completely around 98 on the U.S. Dollar index.
A Steep Decline
Should yields fall, it likely to make currencies such as the yen and euro more attractive than the dollar. If the dollar does fall, it may result in the dollar retesting the lows of 2018 of around 88.
Trade Tensions
Another potential headwind for the dollar are the trade tensions between the U.S. and China. Investors are likely to seek safety in a currency such as the Yen should the trade war grow any worse. The yen could strengthen materially in 2018 and may even be heading back to 100 versus the dollar.
In all, it makes may likely mean that the dollar is heading lower and Prediction #7 for 2019.
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dollar, euro, yen, weaken
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This report contains independent commentary to be used for informational and educational purposes only. Michael Kramer is a member and investment adviser representative with Mott Capital Management. Mr. Kramer is not affiliated with this company and does not serve on the board of any related company that issued this stock. All opinions and analyses presented by Michael Kramer in this analysis or market report are solely Michael Kramer’s views. Readers should not treat any opinion, viewpoint, or prediction expressed by Michael Kramer as a specific solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a particular security or follow a particular strategy. Michael Kramer’s analyses are based upon information and independent research that he considers reliable, but neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Michael Kramer is not under any obligation to update or correct any information presented in his analyses. Mr. Kramer’s statements, guidance, and opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment commentary presented in this analysis. Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investments or strategies mentioned in this analysis may not be suitable for you. This material does not consider your particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs and is not intended as a recommendation appropriate for you. You must make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies in this analysis. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Before acting on information in this analysis, you should consider whether it is suitable for your circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser to determine the suitability of any investment.
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