Here Is Why A Stock Market Rally May Be Brewing Beneath All The Volatility

Here Is Why A Stock Market Rally May Be Brewing Beneath The Volatility

This column is my opinion and expresses my views. Those views can change at a moments notice when the market changes. I am not right all the time and I do not expect to be. I disclose all my positions clearly listed on the page, and I do not trade my account on the stocks spoken of in this column unless fully disclosed. If that does not work for you stop reading and close the page. Do not bother me or harass me.

Otherwise, enjoy the column!

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Cold Open

It was another crazy day of trading activity. First, we were up, then we were down, then up, then down. You have Trump yelling at Schumer and Pelosi in the White House. You can’t make this stuff up. If you haven’t seen this video, you have to watch it!  Can you image the skit that SNL is going to do? Poor Pence, he is just sitting there.

I hate to say it, but this is just a preview of what’s to come. This is just the tip of the iceberg. Anyway enough with politics.


Moving on I thought we should look at the VIX curve, yeah the VIX curve, maybe I’m making the name up, but anyway, sometimes you need to improvise. I took data from CBOE to plot the futures contracts for the VIX, and we can see the contracts are in backwardation. It means that the market is expecting volatility to settle down shortly.


When we look at the term structure of the S&P 500 options market, that too suggests that volatility is expected to fall.

(Trade Alert)

Then of course when we look at the VIX itself, it hit technical resistance around 26 and has since backed off.


So what does it mean for the equity market? Well, I’d hope it means that this crazy volatility will come to an end an soon. I do think this market is starting to reverse itself.  When looking around the marketplace, we will see that there are similar technical patterns continues to play out.


The first thing I started to notice is that volume levels are beginning to fall considerably. Look at the volume decline in the QQQ ETF over the past month.qqq

The same can be seen in the Russell IWM ETF, this despite the Russell falling to its lowest level in 2018. Volume has stayed below the peak in October.

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The declining volume would tell me that seller’s are likely starting dry up.

Range Bound

Additionally, the next chart shows you how the S&P 500 pretty much has been range-bound this entire year, using the SPY chart.  So unless something is about to materially changes there is likely a good reason the stock market finds these sudden bids during the steep sleep-offs. It’s likely because the “market,” as I’m showing you, knows the index is at the bottom of the range.


For the most part, the same holds in the QQQs.


S&P 500 (SPX, SP500)

As for today, it was another case of the machines playing fill the gap. Gap higher, fill it and move on. I even said it today on the chat board at 10:20 am.: we are failing at resistance at 2670. I think we fill the gap to around 2650. before we move higher again. Or at least half the gap. That is typical ALGO Playbook.

As I noted in the morning commentary 2,670 was the path of least resistance, but as we now know that is where we failed. What happens tomorrow?  I have no clue at the moment.

spx, sp500

Amazon (AMZN)

Amazon just continues to cling to this $1,620 level, which I must say is very impressive given the market volatility.

amazon, amzn

Netflix (NFLX)

Netflix continues to hold its long-term uptrend.

netflix, nflx

Facebook (FB)

Facebook continues to hold $140.

facebook, fb

Alphabet (GOOGL)

The same is true of Alphabet.


So despite all the market volatility and despite the S&P 500 hitting fresh lows below October. The FANG stocks have held their previous lows very well.  To me, that is a bullish sign.

Apple (AAPL)

Apple for better or worse has held the $164 low as well.  I wrote up premium article on Thoughts On Apple Following The Qualcomm News


I know it is tedious to look at the FAANG stock as much as we do but consider of the top 10 holdings in the SPY ETF, which represents the S&P 500, the FAANG’s are 40%, with Facebook, Amazon, Apple, and Alphabet in that list. I’m sorry, but if these stocks aren’t rising, then the market isn’t going up. Microsoft is also in this group, although Microsoft has been the rock.

Chips SMH

Even the semiconductor SMH ETF is holdings its previous lows.

semi chips

I’m sorry there are plenty of signs there is a bottom forming, and I continue to get more bullish.


Photo Credit Via Flickr

Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future results

sp500, volaility, volume, fang, facebook, amazon, netflix, alphabet, apple, microsoft