This column is my opinion and expresses my views. Those views can change at a moments notice when the market changes. I am not right all the time and I do not expect to be. I disclose all my positions clearly listed on the page, and I do not trade my account on the stocks spoken of in this column unless fully disclosed. If that does not work for you stop reading and close the page. Do not bother me or harass me.
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MICHAEL KRAMER AND THE CLIENTS OF MOTT CAPITAL OWN AAPL, NFLX, TSLA
Good Morning Today is December 12
- S&P 500 futures are pointing to a higher opening of 30 points as of 8 AM
- The US 10-year rate is at 2.88%
- Dollar Index is at 97.40
- WTI Crude Oil is $52.58
- Critical events for today: – PM May To Face No Confidence Vote Today – Could Lead to Her Toppling over Brexit
Recap of International Trading:
Japan was +2.15%
Hong Kong Hang Seng Index +1.61%
China Shanghai Comp. +31 bps
UK FTSE up +1.35%
Dax +98 bps
FED Rate Hike Watch:
According to the CME, there is now a 75% chance of a rate hike in December, that is down from 76% yesterday, and 80% on December 5.
Currently, the market is pricing in a 38% chance there is no rate hike in 2019 and a 36% chance of just one rate hike.
In an interview with Reuters, President Trump believes it would be a mistake if the Fed raised rates next week.
Will It Be More of The Same?
S&P 500 is looking as if it is ready to gap higher this morning. These gaps higher in the morning have been a risky bet recently. As we have noted the ALGO’s have a way of closing those gaps throughout the day. The GAP up on December 3 was filled by days end. The GAP lower on December was filled by days end, The GAP higher on December 10 was filled by days. I would not be surprised to see today’s gap higher filled by midday.
2,670 remains resistance, which was the level the S&P 500 failed at yesterday. That will be resistance today, and the S&P 500 needs to clear that level today for any chance to mount a new trend higher before year’s end.
MInd the GAP!
Apple is considering shifting production out of China if tariffs go to 25%. Apple is very much the stock that needs to show some signs of leadership. Apple WAS the most valuable company, and it needs to lead like it once did. $164 continues to be technical support and should it rise above $170 it may result in a move back to $180.
Amazon continues to be range-bound between $1620 and $1760.
Netflix continues to hold its long-term uptrend, and the stock needs to advance over $272 if it is to make a move to $285.
Facebook is another stock that needs to lead, and its performance has dramatically improved recently. The stock may be breaking out, finally, and maybe on its way to $148
The chips are another group that needs to lead the market higher. Broadcom recently reported strong results and an increase above $252 could see the stock on to $273.
Tesla continues to inch closer to $388. It should be a big winner from the auto tariff reductions in China.
Good luck today!
Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future results
sp500, Amazon, Facebook, Tesla, Broadcom,netflix