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Here’s How My 10 Predictions For 2021 Fared

This column is my opinion and expresses my views. Those views can change at a moments notice when the market changes. I am not right all the time and I do not expect to be. I disclose all my positions clearly listed on the page, and I do not trade my account on the stocks spoken of in this column unless fully disclosed. If that does not work for you stop reading and close the page. Do not bother me or harass me.

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December 23, 2021

Before I roll out my 10 predictions for 2022, I thought we could first go back and look at how the predictions for 2021 panned out. I wrote the 10 predictions for 2021 on December 25, 2020.

10) Despite a very weak third quarter it seems that the US economy is on track to post a 5% gain in 2021 after the first half of the year easily surpassed 6%, and the fourth quarter currently tracking around 7% based on the Atlanta Fed model, the US economy should grow by more than 5% this year. CORRECT

9) Yes inflation rates were hotter than expected in the first half of the year, but they did not come down in the second half of the year.  I will give myself half credit for this prediction- 1/2

8) The 10-year yield as of December 23 is currently trading at 1.49%, so this is an easy CORRECT.

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7) The dollar index rally sharply in the second half of 2021 and is currently trading at 96.06 an easy CORRECT.

6) Gold never got anywhere close to my prediction and although it appears it will finish the year lower, I give myself an INCORRECT.

5) Platnium never got close to my target of $1600, so this goes as an INCORRECT.

4) Technology did struggle to start the year, with the XLK actually trading lower through March, and underperforming the S&P 500 for the first half of the year. I will give myself CORRECT for this one.

3) The BKX has had a really good year but was not THE best performing sector. It was one of the best-performing sectors, but that doesn’t cut it. So this was INCORRECT.

2) Clearly, the Fed stuck with the term “transitory” until the bitter end, as well as its bond-buying program and zero rate policy. This is an easy CORRECT.

  1. The S&P 500 rallied far more than I expected this year and is an easy INCORRECT

Total for 2021 5 1/2 out of 10. Not bad considering, how hard it is the call the market week to week or month to month, let alone a full year in advance.


Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and, unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future results.