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December 23, 2021
Before I roll out my 10 predictions for 2022, I thought we could first go back and look at how the predictions for 2021 panned out. I wrote the 10 predictions for 2021 on December 25, 2020.
10) Despite a very weak third quarter it seems that the US economy is on track to post a 5% gain in 2021 after the first half of the year easily surpassed 6%, and the fourth quarter currently tracking around 7% based on the Atlanta Fed model, the US economy should grow by more than 5% this year. CORRECT
9) Yes inflation rates were hotter than expected in the first half of the year, but they did not come down in the second half of the year. I will give myself half credit for this prediction- 1/2
8) The 10-year yield as of December 23 is currently trading at 1.49%, so this is an easy CORRECT.
7) The dollar index rally sharply in the second half of 2021 and is currently trading at 96.06 an easy CORRECT.
6) Gold never got anywhere close to my prediction and although it appears it will finish the year lower, I give myself an INCORRECT.
5) Platnium never got close to my target of $1600, so this goes as an INCORRECT.
4) Technology did struggle to start the year, with the XLK actually trading lower through March, and underperforming the S&P 500 for the first half of the year. I will give myself CORRECT for this one.
3) The BKX has had a really good year but was not THE best performing sector. It was one of the best-performing sectors, but that doesn’t cut it. So this was INCORRECT.
2) Clearly, the Fed stuck with the term “transitory” until the bitter end, as well as its bond-buying program and zero rate policy. This is an easy CORRECT.
- The S&P 500 rallied far more than I expected this year and is an easy INCORRECT
Total for 2021 5 1/2 out of 10. Not bad considering, how hard it is the call the market week to week or month to month, let alone a full year in advance.
-Mike
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This report contains independent commentary to be used for informational and educational purposes only. Michael Kramer is a member and investment adviser representative with Mott Capital Management. Mr. Kramer is not affiliated with this company and does not serve on the board of any related company that issued this stock. All opinions and analyses presented by Michael Kramer in this analysis or market report are solely Michael Kramer’s views. Readers should not treat any opinion, viewpoint, or prediction expressed by Michael Kramer as a specific solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a particular security or follow a particular strategy. Michael Kramer’s analyses are based upon information and independent research that he considers reliable, but neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Michael Kramer is not under any obligation to update or correct any information presented in his analyses. Mr. Kramer’s statements, guidance, and opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment commentary presented in this analysis. Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investments or strategies mentioned in this analysis may not be suitable for you. This material does not consider your particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs and is not intended as a recommendation appropriate for you. You must make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies in this analysis. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Before acting on information in this analysis, you should consider whether it is suitable for your circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser to determine the suitability of any investment.
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