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12:20
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This report contains independent commentary to be used for informational and educational purposes only. Michael Kramer is a member and investment adviser representative with Mott Capital Management. Mr. Kramer is not affiliated with this company and does not serve on the board of any related company that issued this stock. All opinions and analyses presented by Michael Kramer in this analysis or market report are solely Michael Kramer’s views. Readers should not treat any opinion, viewpoint, or prediction expressed by Michael Kramer as a specific solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a particular security or follow a particular strategy. Michael Kramer’s analyses are based upon information and independent research that he considers reliable, but neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Michael Kramer is not under any obligation to update or correct any information presented in his analyses. Mr. Kramer’s statements, guidance, and opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment commentary presented in this analysis. Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investments or strategies mentioned in this analysis may not be suitable for you. This material does not consider your particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs and is not intended as a recommendation appropriate for you. You must make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies in this analysis. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Before acting on information in this analysis, you should consider whether it is suitable for your circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser to determine the suitability of any investment.
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YouTube Video VVVNT0lJcjFvb1JzU3VrUEw3cktOcjBWSFEudUVOOVg5YXpmU0E
11:40
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This report contains independent commentary to be used for informational and educational purposes only. Michael Kramer is a member and investment adviser representative with Mott Capital Management. Mr. Kramer is not affiliated with this company and does not serve on the board of any related company that issued this stock. All opinions and analyses presented by Michael Kramer in this analysis or market report are solely Michael Kramer’s views. Readers should not treat any opinion, viewpoint, or prediction expressed by Michael Kramer as a specific solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a particular security or follow a particular strategy. Michael Kramer’s analyses are based upon information and independent research that he considers reliable, but neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Michael Kramer is not under any obligation to update or correct any information presented in his analyses. Mr. Kramer’s statements, guidance, and opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment commentary presented in this analysis. Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investments or strategies mentioned in this analysis may not be suitable for you. This material does not consider your particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs and is not intended as a recommendation appropriate for you. You must make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies in this analysis. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Before acting on information in this analysis, you should consider whether it is suitable for your circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser to determine the suitability of any investment.
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YouTube Video VVVNT0lJcjFvb1JzU3VrUEw3cktOcjBWSFEuT2VDV1pwa2JnNlk
12:29
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This report contains independent commentary to be used for informational and educational purposes only. Michael Kramer is a member and investment adviser representative with Mott Capital Management. Mr. Kramer is not affiliated with this company and does not serve on the board of any related company that issued this stock. All opinions and analyses presented by Michael Kramer in this analysis or market report are solely Michael Kramer’s views. Readers should not treat any opinion, viewpoint, or prediction expressed by Michael Kramer as a specific solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a particular security or follow a particular strategy. Michael Kramer’s analyses are based upon information and independent research that he considers reliable, but neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Michael Kramer is not under any obligation to update or correct any information presented in his analyses. Mr. Kramer’s statements, guidance, and opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment commentary presented in this analysis. Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investments or strategies mentioned in this analysis may not be suitable for you. This material does not consider your particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs and is not intended as a recommendation appropriate for you. You must make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies in this analysis. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Before acting on information in this analysis, you should consider whether it is suitable for your circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser to determine the suitability of any investment.
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YouTube Video VVVNT0lJcjFvb1JzU3VrUEw3cktOcjBWSFEucnppazN0OGg1S3M
May 10, 2019
US Trading
- S&P 500 Futures -8 points
- 10-year Treasury 2.455%
- Dollar Index 97.34
- VIX 19.25
- Oil $62.03
International Trading
- Shanghai +3.1%
- Nikkei -.027%
- Hong Kong HSI +0.84%
- South Korea KOSPI +0.29%
- German DAX +1.07%
- UK FTSE +0.36%
And on May 10, the sun still rose, and the birds sang. People got up and went to work, and the children went to school. Global trade continued, and the world went on.
However, instantly the gods of global growth punished the US economy for the tariffs knocking 0.3% off the US GDP which equated to about $60 billion in a $20 trillion US economy. Less than the entire market cap that Alphabet lost in 1 day following its earnings report, or nearly the same $50 billion that was wiped off Apple’s market cap this week.
Makes tons of sense? Of Course, it makes sense, because it is the equity market we are talking about, the home of the irrational and out of control algo’s. The same algo’s that search the internet for keywords but can’t understand the meaning of those words.
Look at the losses this week in the top 25 companies that make up the S&P 500, a total market value loss of $276 billion! That nearly five times the amount the tariffs are estimated to have on the US economy.
(Data from YCharts)
Even better the losses in the top 25 stocks in the S&P 500 are greater than the estimated 0.3% of GDP knocked off the roughly $80 trillion global economy, or $240 billion! Is the market oversold? Yeah, I’d say just a little bit.
Rates
Bond yields are already reflecting the slower global growth, with US 10-year yields at 2.45% which are higher than there where they were on March 28 when they reached a low of 2.34% when everyone thought we were going to get a trade deal and before we knew the US GDP grew at 3.2% in the first place. Yes, fear continues to rip through the bond market as investor run for a flight to safety. However, that seems to be anything but the case. Oh wait, it must be China selling our treasuries to buy German Bunds that yield a negative 5 bps, right. Don’t think so.
Dollar
As fears of the US economy heading to a recession due to the tariffs and widening federal deficits as a result of 2018 tax reform the dollar is plunging. Or not, because the dollar index is down less than ten basis points today and continues to point in a higher direction.
Oil
Meanwhile, Oil is plunging on fears of slowing global growth. Oh sorry, it looks like it rising by 50bps, and continue to be flat this week and holding support at $61.50.
Shanghai
Yes, the gods of slowing global growth are punishing the financial markets throughout the world on tariff increases as the Shanghai composite soars over 3% following the news, and is yearning to fill the gap up to around 3,070.
S&P 500 (SPY)
Anyway, enough with the drama! All that matters today is what the S&P 500 does, and more importantly, holds technical support at 2,836. I’d be perfectly fine with an early morning retest of 2836 followed by a rally higher to finish the week above the downtrend.
That’s gonna be it. I’m done.
-Mike
Mott Capital Management, LLCÂ is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
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This report contains independent commentary to be used for informational and educational purposes only. Michael Kramer is a member and investment adviser representative with Mott Capital Management. Mr. Kramer is not affiliated with this company and does not serve on the board of any related company that issued this stock. All opinions and analyses presented by Michael Kramer in this analysis or market report are solely Michael Kramer’s views. Readers should not treat any opinion, viewpoint, or prediction expressed by Michael Kramer as a specific solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a particular security or follow a particular strategy. Michael Kramer’s analyses are based upon information and independent research that he considers reliable, but neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Michael Kramer is not under any obligation to update or correct any information presented in his analyses. Mr. Kramer’s statements, guidance, and opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment commentary presented in this analysis. Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investments or strategies mentioned in this analysis may not be suitable for you. This material does not consider your particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs and is not intended as a recommendation appropriate for you. You must make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies in this analysis. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Before acting on information in this analysis, you should consider whether it is suitable for your circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser to determine the suitability of any investment.
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