This column is my opinion and expresses my views. Those views can change at a moments notice when the market changes. I am not right all the time and I do not expect to be. I disclose all my positions clearly listed on the page, and I do not trade my account on the stocks spoken of in this column unless fully disclosed. If that does not work for you stop reading and close the page. Do not bother me or harass me.
Otherwise, enjoy the column!
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July 1, 2020
STOCKS – MU, AMZN, AMD, ZM
MACRO – SPY, SMH
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- Testing Resistance/Reducing Tesla -Midday
- Waiting For More Data – Morning
- Gap Filled, Resume The Previous Trend?
- The Rest Of The Week Could Be Tough
- The Fed’s Falling Balance Sheet Could Spell Trouble
- RISK IS BUILDING- MIDDAY
- Facebook Is The Key Today’s Market – Morning
- THE WEEK OF JUNE 29 WILL BE CHALLENGING
MICHAEL KRAMER AND THE CLIENTS OF MOTT CAPITAL OWN AAPL
It looked like the bulls would run away with today, and I’m not sure what happened in the last 10 minutes, but the market gave back a significant portion of its gains. It was as if all the buyers vanished, the short-covering was done, or the guys that took the repo money from the Fed who spiked the S&P from 2 PM until 3:50 had no one to sell their buying spree to. No matter how you slice and dice it, the buyer vanished. It resulted in the S&P 500, moving down 50bps in a straight line in the final minutes.
We closed at 3,115, which was a significant level all day, and a battleground. It makes tomorrow perhaps the most important day of the third quarter. If the market breaks out, it will be set up for a nice run higher. If the market fails, it probably takes a trip back to 3,000 and lower. It may be that easy at this point. To push the drama to another level, we get the jobs data tomorrow.
If that weren’t enough, Apple is closing more stores, and no late tonight McDonald’s is putting reopening plans on hold. There will be more to follow.
This market is in a dangerous spot. Like February, the market didn’t care. Coronavirus cases were rising; it didn’t care. Apple cut its guidance; it didn’t care. Then all of a sudden, it cared and in a meaningful way. None of what is taking place right now is good for anyone.
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At some point, if the reopening stalls, it doesn’t matter what business line you are in, at home, cloud, or retail, if you have fewer customers, your sales aren’t going to take a hit. At some point, the market will care, and it will care in a big way.
So my 2-cents makes sure you understand what you own, why you own it, and how much pain you are willing to take should things go south.
Oh, tomorrow is the final day of the week. We get a nice loooooooooong weekend!
The Semis did not have a good day, and there is an issue at the $154 level in the SMH. The weakness comes in the face of Micron and Xilinx, which both gave positive outlooks this week. Strange!
I guess technicals work even for earnings. Notice how Micron rose to resistance and failed at $52.75 as it should, and is now trading back down to $49.80. I still think this one goes back to $45.50.
It looks like Amazon in the final phases of this advance. Well, see…
Zoom rose today, retesting its breakdown from the rising wedge.
AMD is not looking particularly strong here. The RSI suggests the downdraft isn’t over yet.
Have a good one!
Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and, unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future results.