This Way Or That...
There will be a flood of economic data on July 1, which is likely to play a big role in the equity market's direction.

This Way Or That…

This column is my opinion and expresses my views. Those views can change at a moments notice when the market changes. I am not right all the time and I do not expect to be. I disclose all my positions clearly listed on the page, and I do not trade my account on the stocks spoken of in this column unless fully disclosed. If that does not work for you stop reading and close the page. Do not bother me or harass me.

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July 1, 2020



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Stocks are moving lower this morning with the S&P 500 futures consolidation around the 3080, but now starting to turn lower along with the rest of the world. I can’t find specific news triggering the move. It could be a bit of an unwind from yesterday’s sharp rally and end of quarter window dressing.

The ADP job report is due out at 8:15 AM, and the estimates are for a gain of 2.7 million jobs in June. Meanwhile, the ISM manufacturing report at 10 AM and estimates are for 49. Based on the chart below of the SPY ETF, one can see that today’s economic data have a significant impact on whether we break out and rocket higher, or fail at resistance and move lower.

FedEx (FDX)

FedEx is jumping this morning after reporting better than expected results. The company noted in its conference calls it is seeing week over week improvement in its business since bottoming in April but notes the tentative economic recovery. There is a gap to fill around $160.

Tesla (TSLA)

Well, it is July first, and that means we will get Tesla’s delivery numbers at any minute. The numbers generally come no later than the 3rd day of the new quarter. So that means email leaking is in peak season. The big question and the only thing that will matter is will they or won’t be profitable in the second quarter, and will they be up for S&P 500 inclusion. That inclusion could be what pushes shares to around $1200.

Acadia (ACAD)

This could be a very big quarter for Acadia, as we will likely get the company’s depression data this quarter. If the data comes in positively, as I mostly believe it will, then the company could have a significant new indication to add to its potential revenue stream. The stock has been consolidating nicely in recent weeks in the $45 to $53 range.

Have a good day.


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