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Lock in sale →Oil looked poised to break out today but could not clear the trendline. At least for now, oil bulls will have to wait and see if the market can gather enough momentum tomorrow to finally push through.
From a fundamental standpoint, there are plenty of reasons for oil to break out, but for some reason, it keeps getting stuck beneath resistance.
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With the sudden reversal in oil prices, momentum across the broader market shifted as well, with the S&P 500 rallying by nearly 70 basis points in the final hour of trading, leaving the index down just 7 basis points on the day.
What is ironic is that the S&P 500 had actually fallen below its 10-day exponential moving average, but support in the index held, and ultimately that is what matters. Whether the index can survive tomorrow is another question, with roughly $40 billion in Treasury bill settlements scheduled.
Certainly, the MOVE Index saw a significant gain today, rising to 86. That is a pretty substantial move over just two days, climbing from 69 to 86.
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That has helped the ratio of oil volatility to bond market volatility contract somewhat, and based on the moves over the past two days, the oil market’s view may now be winning.
At this point, the VIX has yet to capitulate, but then again, the equity market has AI, and apparently you need oil for AI anyway. So…
-Mike
Glossary by ChatGPT
- MOVE Index — A bond market volatility index that measures expected volatility in U.S. Treasury markets.
- S&P 500 — A benchmark index tracking the performance of 500 large publicly traded U.S. companies.
- Trendline Resistance — A technical analysis level where rising prices repeatedly struggle to move higher.
- VIX — A volatility index measuring expected volatility in the U.S. equity market over the next 30 days.
- 10-Day Exponential Moving Average — A technical indicator that places greater weight on recent price movements to identify short-term trends.
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This report contains independent commentary to be used for informational and educational purposes only. Michael Kramer is a member and investment adviser representative with Mott Capital Management. Mr. Kramer is not affiliated with this company and does not serve on the board of any related company that issued this stock. All opinions and analyses presented by Michael Kramer in this analysis or market report are solely Michael Kramer’s views. Readers should not treat any opinion, viewpoint, or prediction expressed by Michael Kramer as a specific solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a particular security or follow a particular strategy. Michael Kramer’s analyses are based upon information and independent research that he considers reliable, but neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Michael Kramer is not under any obligation to update or correct any information presented in his analyses. Mr. Kramer’s statements, guidance, and opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment commentary presented in this analysis. Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investments or strategies mentioned in this analysis may not be suitable for you. This material does not consider your particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs and is not intended as a recommendation appropriate for you. You must make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies in this analysis. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Before acting on information in this analysis, you should consider whether it is suitable for your circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser to determine the suitability of any investment.
This report contains independent commentary to be used for informational and educational purposes only. Michael Kramer is a member and investment adviser representative with Mott Capital Management. Mr. Kramer is not affiliated with this company and does not serve on the board of any related company that issued this stock. All opinions and analyses presented by Michael Kramer in this analysis or market report are solely Michael Kramer’s views. Readers should not treat any opinion, viewpoint, or prediction expressed by Michael Kramer as a specific solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a particular security or follow a particular strategy. Michael Kramer’s analyses are based upon information and independent research that he considers reliable, but neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Michael Kramer is not under any obligation to update or correct any information presented in his analyses. Mr. Kramer’s statements, guidance, and opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment commentary presented in this analysis. Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investments or strategies mentioned in this analysis may not be suitable for you. This material does not consider your particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs and is not intended as a recommendation appropriate for you. You must make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies in this analysis. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Before acting on information in this analysis, you should consider whether it is suitable for your circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser to determine the suitability of any investment.
Treasury Settlement Stress Test Begins as Markets Stall at Key Support
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