Prediction #9 - The US economy will rebound in 2020, growing at a 3% rate after the 2019 recession never materialized.

Prediction Number 9: US GDP Grows at 3% in 2020

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2019 is coming a close, and now as we turn towards next year, I present to you a list of 10 stock market predictions for 2020. You can review my list of top 10 predictions for previous years 2016, 2017, 2018, and 2019 to see how I did. 

As I did last year, I will start with number 10 and work our way up to number 1 over the final month of 2019. Enjoy!

Prediction Number 9: US GDP Will Grow At 3%

With global growth returning and the importance of the US/China trade war diminishing, businesses will begin to start reinvesting in CAPEX, and that will cause the US economy to surge from its 2% growth rate in 2019.

Overblown Recession Fear Meltaway

Fears of a recession and uncertainty around trade caused businesses to cut back or delay essential investment decisions in 2019. But the recession never materialized. Despite their best efforts, cries from the mainstream media, and the herd-like mentality among investors, the consumer never bought into the hype and as a result, never stopped spending.

US/China Significance Dimisinishes

Meanwhile, the number of goods imported from China is declining at a rapid pace, and that means the importance of the trade war will gradual disappear throughout 2020. This will give businesses the confidence to spend more and allow the economy to come back online and result in the US GDP to grow at 3% or more in 2020.

china imports

(Data from St. Louis Federal Reserve)

It could not come at a better time for President Trump, who needs to run his reelection campaign on the strength of the economic and the lowest unemployment rate in half a century.

Hope you enjoyed prediction #9

-Mike

Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future results. 

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This report contains independent commentary to be used for informational and educational purposes only. Michael Kramer is a member and investment adviser representative with Mott Capital Management. Mr. Kramer is not affiliated with this company and does not serve on the board of any related company that issued this stock. All opinions and analyses presented by Michael Kramer in this analysis or market report are solely Michael Kramer’s views. Readers should not treat any opinion, viewpoint, or prediction expressed by Michael Kramer as a specific solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a particular security or follow a particular strategy. Michael Kramer’s analyses are based upon information and independent research that he considers reliable, but neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Michael Kramer is not under any obligation to update or correct any information presented in his analyses. Mr. Kramer’s statements, guidance, and opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment commentary presented in this analysis. Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investments or strategies mentioned in this analysis may not be suitable for you. This material does not consider your particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs and is not intended as a recommendation appropriate for you. You must make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies in this analysis. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Before acting on information in this analysis, you should consider whether it is suitable for your circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser to determine the suitability of any investment.