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Previewing Micron, Plus Breakout’s In Netflix, Apple- The Week Ahead
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Believe it or not, the week of December 18 will be the last full week of 2017. The following week will be cut short by one day, due to the Christmas holiday. 2017 seems have gone fast, and for the most part was a very a good year.
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The S&P 500 is up by nearly 20 percent on the year, and it surely had a spectacular run since October, when it was only up by 12.5 percent. With Tax reform now pretty much wrapped up, and all the major central bank meeting now behind us, it would seem there is little if any reason for the S&P 500 not to continue to rise over the next nine trading session.
Consumer discretionary stocks like Home Depot, McDonald’s, Costco, and WalMart have had incredible runs, nearly on par with the like of Amazon and Netflix. The gains in the group are pretty amazing, Costco is the worst performing name, and it is up nearly 21 percent.
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Micron
Micron will come into focus this week when it reports fiscal first-quarter results. Analysts consensus estimates are looking for the Micron’s revenue to have climbed by 23.5 percent to $25.10 billion while looking for earnings to be up by 61.2 percent to $8.00.
The long straddle options strategy is pricing in a 12 percent for the stock, with a range of $37.95 to $48.05, using the $43 strike price, set to expire on January 19. Calls are favored with nearly 80,000 contracts of open interest, versus only 4,500 contracts for the puts. The $50 strike price calls have the highest open interest with almost 100,000 contracts open, with the calls trading a price of $0.50. It would mean shares of the stock would need to rise to $50.50 just to break even, an increase of nearly 19 percent from the stocks closing price of $42,40 on Friday, December 15.
Analysts revenue and earnings estimates for Micron’s current quarter have been steadily rising over the past three months.
MU Revenue Estimates for Current Quarter data by YCharts
But the market has been nervous about Micron going into this print, with shares of the down over 14 percent since the end of November.
Micron stock has a lot riding on this coming quarter’s results, for sure.
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Tesla
Tesla shares have rallied sharply since December 5, up by about 13 percent. Reports of Model 3 production nearing 5,000 per week is helping to lift shares. In fact, the article even site a google sheet owners are now piecing together. The techincal chart suggest the stock might get a push above $350 this week.
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Netflix
Netflix was able to rise above resistance around $190 this past week, and that breakout could help to push shares back to over $200.
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Facebook shares are also nearing a breakout; should shares cross $180 this coming week, it would signal a breakout and higher price to come.
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AMD
AMD has been very tricky lately. I have poorly struggled with trying to get this one right. Every time I think it is about to rise, it falls, and vice versa. The chart has looked bearish to me in recent days, but then the stock goes and has a solid day on Friday, making me think a reversal to the upside is now coming. But I have lost my way on this stock, so it is anyone’s guess.
The one thing I do know is that after an amazing run in 2016, 2017 has been a major disappointment for AMD and its shareholders.
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Activision
Activision Blizzard, had a rough started to December, but not only has shares recovery, but they have also broken out as well.
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Apple
Apple is on the cusp of a significant breakout too.
Hope this helps you get your week started! Good Luck
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Michael Kramer and the Clients of Mott Capital own shares of $TSLA $NFLX
Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future.
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Tags: #technology #amd #micron #tesla #netflix #apple #activision
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This report contains independent commentary to be used for informational and educational purposes only. Michael Kramer is a member and investment adviser representative with Mott Capital Management. Mr. Kramer is not affiliated with this company and does not serve on the board of any related company that issued this stock. All opinions and analyses presented by Michael Kramer in this analysis or market report are solely Michael Kramer’s views. Readers should not treat any opinion, viewpoint, or prediction expressed by Michael Kramer as a specific solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a particular security or follow a particular strategy. Michael Kramer’s analyses are based upon information and independent research that he considers reliable, but neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Michael Kramer is not under any obligation to update or correct any information presented in his analyses. Mr. Kramer’s statements, guidance, and opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment commentary presented in this analysis. Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investments or strategies mentioned in this analysis may not be suitable for you. This material does not consider your particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs and is not intended as a recommendation appropriate for you. You must make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies in this analysis. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Before acting on information in this analysis, you should consider whether it is suitable for your circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser to determine the suitability of any investment.