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May 24 – Stock mentions: AAPL, AMD, JD, MU, CSCO
Michael Kramer and the clients of Mott Capital own AAPL and CSCO
Stocks had a decent start to May 28 testing resistance and the downtrend to start, but that eventually gave way to late day selling. Clearly, the trend, for now, is too strong. On the day the S&P 500 finished about 85 basis points lower. It wasn’t the trade war grabbing the headlines today, but rate worries and what that means for the economy.
In my view, falling rates means nothing for the economy. We live in a low-interest-rate world, and that isn’t changing. Rates in the US are falling based on supply and demand, have you look at German rates lately? Or Japanese rates? The German Bunds trades at -16 basis points. It really is common sense! Who Bonds would you rather own a US 10-year at 2.3% or a German Bund at -0.16%. Do I have to answer?
I spoke about this in my video today and used some good chart to show why this happening – Big Day For Stocks Comes May 30.
True falling rates may have something to do with slowing growth somewhere in the world –mostly Europe. But then again, Europe hasn’t grown for years. But this is the one chart you need to follow the most closely the US 10-Year minus the German 10-Year. We can see that the spread is still incredibly wide, and is on the verge of breaking down significantly, which means that US rates will begin to fall at a faster pace then German bunds.
So if you think rates are low, wait they are likely heading even lower. I said this once; I will say it again –to 2%. It is not, a sign of a US recession; it is an issue of global supply and demand for bonds, and the lack of inflation.
If you are interested, I will be a webinar on this very topic on July 10 at 1 PM EDT.
S&P 500 (SPY)
The S&P 500 has been unable to rise above 2,836 the past two trading session and is now breaking down and must hold above 2,800. A drop below triggers the next leg lower to 2,785 and potentially 2,735.
Nasdaq (IXIC)
The NASDAQ is clinging for life at 7,600, and a drop below here sets up a decline to 7,430.
It may be an understatement to say we find ourselves once again in a precarious position.
Apple (AAPL)
If there is a shimmer of hope, it is Apple. We can see on the chart how a falling wedge pattern has formed. It is a bullish reversal pattern. But at this point, the chart first suggests there is more for the stock to fall, maybe to $175.
AMD (AMD)
AMD had a great day rising above the downtrend and testing resistance at $29.40. The RSI broke out today as well. First things first, the stock needs to break through 29.40, then we can think about $31.40.
JD.com (JD)
JD.com appears to be in trouble once again, with a drop below $26 pushing shares to around $23.50.
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Charts used with the permission of Bloomberg Finance L.P. This report contains independent commentary to be used for informational and educational purposes only. Michael Kramer is a member and investment adviser representative with Mott Capital Management. Mr. Kramer is not affiliated with this company and does not serve on the board of any related company that issued this stock. All opinions and analyses presented by Michael Kramer in this analysis or market report are solely Michael Kramer’s views. Readers should not treat any opinion, viewpoint, or prediction expressed by Michael Kramer as a specific solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a particular security or follow a particular strategy. Michael Kramer’s analyses are based upon information and independent research that he considers reliable, but neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Michael Kramer is not under any obligation to update or correct any information presented in his analyses. Mr. Kramer’s statements, guidance, and opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment commentary presented in this analysis. Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investments or strategies mentioned in this analysis may not be suitable for you. This material does not consider your particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs and is not intended as a recommendation appropriate for you. You must make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies in this analysis. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Before acting on information in this analysis, you should consider whether it is suitable for your circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser to determine the suitability of any investment.
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Charts used with the permission of Bloomberg Finance L.P. This report contains independent commentary to be used for informational and educational purposes only. Michael Kramer is a member and investment adviser representative with Mott Capital Management. Mr. Kramer is not affiliated with this company and does not serve on the board of any related company that issued this stock. All opinions and analyses presented by Michael Kramer in this analysis or market report are solely Michael Kramer’s views. Readers should not treat any opinion, viewpoint, or prediction expressed by Michael Kramer as a specific solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a particular security or follow a particular strategy. Michael Kramer’s analyses are based upon information and independent research that he considers reliable, but neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Michael Kramer is not under any obligation to update or correct any information presented in his analyses. Mr. Kramer’s statements, guidance, and opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment commentary presented in this analysis. Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investments or strategies mentioned in this analysis may not be suitable for you. This material does not consider your particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs and is not intended as a recommendation appropriate for you. You must make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies in this analysis. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Before acting on information in this analysis, you should consider whether it is suitable for your circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser to determine the suitability of any investment.
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Charts used with the permission of Bloomberg Finance L.P. This report contains independent commentary to be used for informational and educational purposes only. Michael Kramer is a member and investment adviser representative with Mott Capital Management. Mr. Kramer is not affiliated with this company and does not serve on the board of any related company that issued this stock. All opinions and analyses presented by Michael Kramer in this analysis or market report are solely Michael Kramer’s views. Readers should not treat any opinion, viewpoint, or prediction expressed by Michael Kramer as a specific solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a particular security or follow a particular strategy. Michael Kramer’s analyses are based upon information and independent research that he considers reliable, but neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Michael Kramer is not under any obligation to update or correct any information presented in his analyses. Mr. Kramer’s statements, guidance, and opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment commentary presented in this analysis. Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investments or strategies mentioned in this analysis may not be suitable for you. This material does not consider your particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs and is not intended as a recommendation appropriate for you. You must make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies in this analysis. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Before acting on information in this analysis, you should consider whether it is suitable for your circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser to determine the suitability of any investment.
1
YouTube Video VVVNT0lJcjFvb1JzU3VrUEw3cktOcjBWSFEuNkNMN0xjWklMUzA
Micron (MU)
Micron keeps getting worse, and the decline below $32.50 sets up a drop to $29. Let’s hope that doesn’t happen.
Cisco (CSCO)
Cisco looks like it may refill the gap to $52.25.
That’s all for today. Just think we start getting PMI’s on Thursday night!
-Mike
Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
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Charts used with the permission of Bloomberg Finance L.P. This report contains independent commentary to be used for informational and educational purposes only. Michael Kramer is a member and investment adviser representative with Mott Capital Management. Mr. Kramer is not affiliated with this company and does not serve on the board of any related company that issued this stock. All opinions and analyses presented by Michael Kramer in this analysis or market report are solely Michael Kramer’s views. Readers should not treat any opinion, viewpoint, or prediction expressed by Michael Kramer as a specific solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a particular security or follow a particular strategy. Michael Kramer’s analyses are based upon information and independent research that he considers reliable, but neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Michael Kramer is not under any obligation to update or correct any information presented in his analyses. Mr. Kramer’s statements, guidance, and opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment commentary presented in this analysis. Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investments or strategies mentioned in this analysis may not be suitable for you. This material does not consider your particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs and is not intended as a recommendation appropriate for you. You must make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies in this analysis. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Before acting on information in this analysis, you should consider whether it is suitable for your circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser to determine the suitability of any investment.
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Mott Capital's Market Chronicles January 10, 2025 12:02 PM