A Slowing Economy? Perception or Reality

This column is my opinion and expresses my views. Those views can change at a moments notice when the market changes. I am not right all the time and I do not expect to be. I disclose all my positions clearly listed on the page, and I do not trade my account on the stocks spoken of in this column unless fully disclosed. If that does not work for you stop reading and close the page. Do not bother me or harass me.

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So suddenly inflation is evaporating, what a shock! If you are surprised you shouldn’t be.

Cpi and ppi vs wti oil

It is likely that inflation will continue to fall as well.

The oil rebound was what fueled the “inflation spike.”

Cpi ex food and energy

Which caused the 10 year to fall.
^TNX Chart

^TNX data by YCharts

But the Fed raised rates. Causing the yield to continue to flatten more.

So as this continue to happen, this could be the one of the major overhang for the markets currently on the horizon. The perception the Fed is tightening into a slowing economy.

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But it is ok the Fed will now start “unwinding” the balance sheet creating Inverse QE. Helping to push rates higher still.

But alas, Atlanta Fed GDPNow came in today at 3.2 percent.  More tomorrow….

Michael Kramer is the Founder and Portfolio Manager of Mott Capital Management LLC, a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendation made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.





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