This column is my opinion and expresses my views. Those views can change at a moments notice when the market changes. I am not right all the time and I do not expect to be. I disclose all my positions clearly listed on the page, and I do not trade my account on the stocks spoken of in this column unless fully disclosed. If that does not work for you stop reading and close the page. Do not bother me or harass me.
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September 10 – Stock mentions: SPY, IWM, ROKU, V, MA, DIS, NFLX, AAPL, ACAD
Michael Kramer and the clients of Mott Capital own V, MA, DIS, NFLX, AAPL, TSLA, ACAD
It was an exciting day for stocks, to say the least — strange stuff was going on that for sure. Momentum stocks continue to get beaten up, while biotech, industrials, and materials trade up.
I get lots of questions all day from subscribers about how long this will last. I don’t have the answer to that, unfortunately. However, I do think that things will return to a normal soon enough.
The technology ETF (XLK) had a nice move off the lows today and broke its recent downtrend. It also managed to fill a gap from September 5.
Do I think the market is heading to something horrible in the coming days? No. The Russell looks strong clearing resistance at 1536 and can climb towards 1565. I’d think if darker days were ahead, the Russell would have already broken down when it was down in the dumps just about a week ago.
S&P 500 (SPX)
Also, the S&P 500 is holding up reasonably strong around the 2975 level, even though it dipped to around 2,960. I think it is positive when the market rises into a close, especially on a weak day.
I also don’t think that PM’s are coming back to work after a summer off. I’m pretty sure things don’t work that way anymore. We live in a world of smart device, and I’m pretty sure we can all get quotes pretty much from any place in the world.
Some of my subscription as a service title you may or may not want to read:
- Risk Aversion Trade Unwinding Fast
- AMD Stock Is Looking Very Weak
- My Process Revealed
- Why Freeport And Copper May Be Heading Higher **
The stocks getting smashed for the most part are momentum play, buying begets buying, and selling begets, well, panic. Simply put, some of these stocks, like Roku, when they broke everyone ran for the exit. I mentioned it last night if the uptrend in Roku breaks at $155, it was ROKU was going down, and still, it may not be done going down. Roku trades at a valuation that makes Netflix look cheap. I mean if this stocks ticker had the letters T S L A, everyone would be screaming about how overvalued it is.
I know, I know, Roku was down because of the Apple + service, pricing. Um sure. But let me ask you, does Roku create content? What does Apple have that competes with Roku, besides that little set-top box, Apple TV? But wait, Apple + will be on available on Roku. So how does Apple pricing its service at $4.99 have anything to do with Roku? It doesn’t. What happened to Roku being the “Switzerland” of streaming TV? I mean, don’t people that want to see the new Apple TV shows bring more viewers to Roku? I don’t get it.
Now, why was the stock really down? The stock was down because everyone was in for a trade, the trade pop, that’s it. Be careful with Roku.
Visa and Mastercard (V, MA)
Why are Visa and Mastercard down? My gut is telling me it is because everyone was that was the selling the banks in August were moving into Visa and Mastercard. I was doing some work tonight. I compared the chart of Visa and Mastercard with some banks. What I found proved my theory. You can see that Visa and Citigroup were tracing each other pretty closely, until the beginning of August.
Apple, I’m beginning to wonder how many camera lenses can fit on the back of an iPhone. So you need to ask yourself about Apple, are they now a camera company? I certainly hope not, and next years 5G upgrade better bring something more stunning than today’s phones.
I also love how Apple stuck to it Disney and by releasing their new service a few days ahead of Disney’s and at a lower price. Thanks for being on the board for so many years, Bob…
I happen to own both stocks, so whatever. I also love how Netflix went down today on the “increasing competition threat” that Apple now presents. No. That is not the case. The price of Apple’s service reflects the content, and right now, Apple’s service is cheap because it sounds like they haven’t much content. Just remember, when Stranger Things 4 or whichever of your Netflix favorite is released, you aren’t going to find on it Apple +. Just sayin.
So far, it sounds like Netflix, Disney, and Apple will cost, what $25 dollars a month? That is still about a quarter of what it cost me to take my kids to the movies just once. Just stop with the competition. Again, I own all three.
Since we are doing a review of my portfolio, we might as well finish it off with Acadia. The stock is on the cusp of a big break out if it can get over $42, we could talking about $50. Hey, I can dream. I deserve it. This stock has been torture to own for the past 3.5 years, and it’s about friggin time it goes up.
Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future results.