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#Stocks – $AAPL
#Macro – $SPX, #Rates
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MICHAEL KRAMER AND THE CLIENTS OF MOTT CAPITAL OWN AAPL
The S&P 500 finished about 50 bps today higher but had been up more than 1% at one point—stocks turnaround after 1 p.m. ET, following a weak 3-year Treasury auction. The 3-year auction ended up tailing, with a when-issued rate of 4.723% while pricing at 4.74%. The bid-to-cover ratio plunged to 2.56, down sharply from last month and the lowest since February.
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That will place extra attention on the 10-year auction tomorrow at 1 p.m., which will come after the PPI report in the morning and ahead of the CPI report on Thursday morning. That will be followed by a 30-year auction on Thursday afternoon.
The 10-year fell yesterday/today (the bond market was closed yesterday) to around 4.65%, basically where it was on October 2, and back to its support region. This is a significant region because if the 10-year continues to hang around this 4.65% to 4.7%, and rates do not break down further, it will tell us that rates will likely continue on their path higher.
Tomorrow will also be the Fed minutes, and I will pay close attention to how rates on the long end of the curve respond to those minutes. The minutes are likely to reflect that “the Fed is close to being done on the rate hikes, but that will stay higher for a long time” approach. If we get long-end rates bouncing higher tomorrow, the curve’s long end may tell us that monetary policy is not tight enough. Those minutes come out at 2 p.m. ET.
S&P 500 (SPX)
I noted today in a mid-day video and write-up that the S&P 500 had reached a 100% extension of wave A right around 1 p.m. ET. So, if the rally wants to be over, it may already have hit the spot. (See: RTM: Stocks Are Near Or At Key Resistance Level)
It is also possible that the retracement of the past three days was the end of wave four up, and today’s high marked the start of wave five lower. We must surpass 4,386 to invalidate that wave count on the S&P 500. Today’s rally drew the index to around a 38.2% retracement of the decline since July 27. Additionally, the candle from today’s make a nice reversal candle. If the index gaps up tomorrow and takes out the highs at 4,386, we probably rally to 4,400 in the days ahead.
Apple appears to have put in a reversal candle today when it traded higher to $179.72, which took out the highs of September 19, 20, and October 9 and then managed to close under all of those highs. The October 9 high probably matters the most, as well as the shares failing at their 50-day moving average. I will be watching now to see if we can break lower, which could mean a retest of those witnessed at the end of September.
See you tomorrow.
Charts used with the permission of Bloomberg Finance L.P. This report contains independent commentary to be used for informational and educational purposes only. Michael Kramer is a member and investment adviser representative with Mott Capital Management. Mr. Kramer is not affiliated with this company and does not serve on the board of any related company that issued this stock. All opinions and analyses presented by Michael Kramer in this analysis or market report are solely Michael Kramer’s views. Readers should not treat any opinion, viewpoint, or prediction expressed by Michael Kramer as a specific solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a particular security or follow a particular strategy. Michael Kramer’s analyses are based upon information and independent research that he considers reliable, but neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Michael Kramer is not under any obligation to update or correct any information presented in his analyses. Mr. Kramer’s statements, guidance, and opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment commentary presented in this analysis. Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investments or strategies mentioned in this analysis may not be suitable for you. This material does not consider your particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs and is not intended as a recommendation appropriate for you. You must make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies in this analysis. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Before acting on information in this analysis, you should consider whether it is suitable for your circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser to determine the suitability of any investment.