This column is my opinion and expresses my views. Those views can change at a moments notice when the market changes. I am not right all the time and I do not expect to be. I disclose all my positions clearly listed on the page, and I do not trade my account on the stocks spoken of in this column unless fully disclosed. If that does not work for you stop reading and close the page. Do not bother me or harass me.
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August 14, 2020
STOCKS – AMZN, FCX, TSLA
MACRO – SPY
Mike’s Reading The Markets (RTM) Premium Content – NOW WITH A 2 WEEK FREE TRIAL
- Warning Signs
- The Message Remains Unchanged, The Market Has Limited Upside
- S&P 500 At THE Critical Moment
- Risk-On Still Under Stress
- Rotation Still In Force, Watch Tech Carefully
- AMD’s Overextended Stock Could Drop 7.5%
- For Now, Rotation Trade Is Keeping S&P 500 Afloat
MICHAEL KRAMER AND THE CLIENTS OF MOTT CAPITAL OWN TSLA
Stocks are falling globally this morning, with markets around the world down about 1%. China reported weaker than expected industrial production but better than expected retail sales. The US will get retail sales at 8:30 and industrial production at 9:15.
Still, Germany is trading down by 1%, the UK is down 1.7%, while the French CAC is down 1.6%. Asia was no better with South Korea trading down 1.23%, and HK down about 20 bps.
S&P 500 (SPY)
It leaves the S&P 500 ETF SPY trading lower by ten bps in the premarket, while the Qs are up about 40 bps. The S&P 500 has stalled out around 3,380, and we will look to see if the index can fill that gap today around 3,340. There is not much else to point to here, as not much as changed, or not going as expected.
I am mildly surprised though the market has not responded more negatively to Congress’s inability to get another relief bill complete. Either it feels what is in place is sufficient, or it is not paying attention.
I wrote a story for Forbes outlining my thoughts and reasons why I think that Amazon could fall by as much as 15%. The chart is forming a triangle pattern, and while some may see that as bullish. My focus is around the RSI, which is trending lower, and volume levels are falling. It makes the stock declining to a range of $2,600 to $2,800 seem reasonable. (Free story – Amazon’s High Flying Stock May Drop By As Much As 15%)
Meanwhile, Tesla got a pair of upgrades today, one from Morgan Stanley, and the other from Bank of America, with both going up to what is the equivalent of neutral ratings. The stock looked like it was heading to $1200 and probably would have gotten there if not for the announcement of a stock split. The stock is getting a boost on word the company may be creating a new car model. The next level of resistance comes around $1710, so we can see if it gets there.
At this point Freeport has failed again at $14.90, and now we can wait to see if the uptrend is challenged around $13.50. I don’t know why it can’t be tested, especially given the weakness we have been seeing copper recently. A break of that uptrend sends the stock back to $12.70.
Have a good day
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