This column is my opinion and expresses my views. Those views can change at a moments notice when the market changes. I am not right all the time and I do not expect to be. I disclose all my positions clearly listed on the page, and I do not trade my account on the stocks spoken of in this column unless fully disclosed. If that does not work for you stop reading and close the page. Do not bother me or harass me.
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Stock mentions: NXPI, NFLX, UBER, SNAP, SHOP
MACRO: EWJ, EWY, SPY, XLI, XLB, IWM
MICHAEL KRAMER AND THE CLIENTS OF MOTT CAPITAL OWN NFLX AND NXPI
- S&P 500 Futures +6.75 points
- US 10-Year 1.82%
- Dollar Index 97.65
- Oil $56.96
- VIX 13.01
- Japan Nikkei +1.76%
- KOSPI +0.58%
- HSI +0.49%
- Shanghai +0.54%
- DAX +0.11%
- UK +0.34%
The South Korea Kospi is powering higher, and as I noted yesterday in my mid-day commentary and my premium video yesterday, one can not underestimate the signal that global stocks are sending. It is powerful when all the markets around the world are rising, and it means that the strength in the US market is not alone. It is a powerful statement.
The Nikkei, although a very long way from its all-time highs from 1989, the index is very quickly approaching its 2018 highs.
The DAX is very close to returning its highs as well.
Again, the strength in the US markets and the S&P 500 is not contained in only the US; it is a global event. It is a compelling statement.
S&P 500 (SPY)
However, with that said, the S&P 500 has led the charge higher, and the index is getting overbought here, and it needs to cool before making its next move higher. The RSI on the S&P 500 is now at 70.
Meanwhile, the number of stocks trading above their 50-day moving average is now at the upper end of the range.
As is the number of stocks above their 200 day moving average.
It would suggest to me that the recent rally we have seen in the SP 500 is likely overbought and needs a minor pullback or cooling period. What we don’t want is a repeat of January 2018.
The industrial ETF is nearing a massive break out, so much for the group being in recession. Maybe that is about to end.
The XLB Material ETF could be heading back to $61.15.
Russell 2000 (IWM)
This is where the Russell has failed the last several times. It may not need to consolidate some before breaking out again.
NXPI is rising this morning, and it is still facing resistance around $121.
Shop finds itself in a precarious spot, with a pretty big downtrend in front of it.
Netflix is trading lower this morning on a note by ISI, saying that app downloads are weak so far in the fourth quarter. Perhaps, app downloads aren’t the best way to track this anymore? I thought everyone was using Roku to watch Netflix now? I mean, isn’t that why Roku stock has gone to the moon? I am being sarcastic. Yet, people are scalping tickets to see the Irishman in New York City. Well, see… I think the stock continues its trend higher to $300.
I’m shocked that Uber is trading down. How many times do we see the options guys making big bets get it so wrong? Not often. These guys bought another 24,000 January $34 calls yesterday. I don’t know. Be careful down here, and watch for a bounce higher. RTM SA premium content; More Bullish Options Betting On UBER
Snap is nearing resistance at $15.50. Well, have to watch this one closely.
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