This column is my opinion and expresses my views. Those views can change at a moments notice when the market changes. I am not right all the time and I do not expect to be. I disclose all my positions clearly listed on the page, and I do not trade my account on the stocks spoken of in this column unless fully disclosed. If that does not work for you stop reading and close the page. Do not bother me or harass me.
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December 6, 2019
Stock: NFLX, BABA, TSLA, AAPL, BIIB
Macro – SPY, XBI
- S&P 500 +6.5 points
- US 10-Year 1.79%
- Dollar Index 97.46
- Oil $58.25
- VIX 14.30
- Japan +0.23%
- SK +1.02%
- HK +1.07%
- China +0.43%
- Germany +0.18%
- UK +0.82%
MICHAEL KRAMER AND THE CLIENTS OF MOTT CAPITAL OWN NFLX, AAPL, TSLA
S&P 500 (SPY)
Stocks are pointing to a higher opening on December 6 following better than expected jobs data. The reading for November came in 266,000 versus estimates of 180,000. The unemployment rate fell to 3.5% versus forecasts of 3.6%; wages grew by 3.1% versus estimates of 3.0%. Private payroll rose by 254,000 versus estimates of 168,000.
Overall, upside resistance continues to live around 3,140 in the S&P 500. The jobs data suggest there is still strong growth in the US economy, and with the Fed basically out of the way, the market doesn’t have to worry about an overheating economy, because inflation is low. Hear more in the morning commentary- Morning Commentary- 12.6.19 – Jobs Suggest Economy Reaccerlating
I will be watching the biotech XBI today pretty closely. The ETF has been on fire in recent days, but yesterday it was notable weaker following pressure within the group. $93.50 had been resistance, and I was trying to give myself some room for error, I had thought a rise about $94.50 would suggest a breakout and push to $98. However, it is looking like the market is choosing to prove me wrong. Now the ETF is back at support at $93.50, and it appears to be breaking the uptrend. I worry that it is more likely the ETF falls to $91.50 now.
Alibaba is approaching resistance at $201.50, and a break out sends the stock back to $210, a failure back to $188, and a potential double top.
Tesla is rising some this morning after Morgan Stanley raised its bull case scenario for the stock to $500 from $440. The level around $330 has acted as support in recent days, and I think the stock works higher to fill the gap up at $353.
Biogen continues to struggle and is unable to get above $308. But I think the RSI is high and needs to fall some more back to the trend. I think the stock pushes lower back towards $280.
I will be watching Apple today because the stock may be getting ready for its next push higher. The RSI is trending higher, and a move above $268 signals the stock has even further to climb perhaps to $276. Premium video – Subscriber Mailbag- Finding Entry Points With The RSI
Netflix may be turning higher. I noted yesterday in the mid-day update that the stock was finding meaningful support at $300, and that a falling wedge pattern was forming. I think that it means shares can move back to $315. Midday update content – Waiting On Jobs Data
Have a good one!