The 2019 Recession That Never Came, Still Isn't Coming - What A Hoax
The job data on Friday was a blowout, and prior months were revised higher. The recession that never came in 2019, still isn't coming.

The 2019 Recession That Never Came, Still Isn’t Coming

December 6, 2019

Stocks: AAPL, GOOGL, MSFT

Macro: SPY

MICHAEL KRAMER AND THE CLIENTS OF MOTT CAPITAL OWN AAPL, MSFT, AND GOOGL

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Macro 

As if the blow out jobs data this morning wasn’t enough, prior months were also revised higher. Meanwhile, the Atlanta Fed GDPNow is forecasting fourth quarter growth of 2%, and based on my work in the past, that number has historically run lighter than actually GDP. So it seems entirely possible to me that the US economy is now growing at a 2.3 to 2.5% growth rate. So much for the recession. Where are the clowns calling for the recession now? Nowhere to be seen, moving those recession targets out to 2020, or sometime within the next 10-years. What a joke. My suggestion, think for yourself, do your homework, and never follow the herd. 

I noted this in my video commentary that it can take about 6-9 months for a rate cut to work its way through the economy, which would indicate that we may first be feeling the effects of only the July rate cut, which was about five months ago. So bottom line, the economy may still have a lot of room to improve from here. Premium content – A Year-End Rally May Only Be Starting 

S&P 500 (SPY)

The S&P 500 did manage to move back into the rising channel, after climbing by 91 bases to close at 3145. My only complaint is that the index didn’t close above resistance at 3153. It leaves the minor risk of a gap fill on Monday down at the 3,110. But I don’t think that is likely to happen. 

The RSI is once again beginning to move higher, and the trend appears to be strong. I think the market continues to rally through year-end with its next stop at 3,200. 

S&P 500, spx

Stocks 

Apple (AAPL)

Apple broke out again today, and it appears the next stop is likely around $275.

Apple, aapl

Microsoft (MSFT)

Meanwhile, Microsoft continues to shows signs of a stock that wants to go higher as well. I think it goes to around $158.

Microsoft, msft

Alphabet (GOOGL)

Then of course there is also Alphabet that is all breaking out and appears to be heading to $1400. 

alphabet, googlWhich way do you think the market is going to go when the three largest companies by market cap are all likely going higher?

-Mike

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