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The volume in the S&P 500 futures today is notably low. For the day, roughly 830,000 contracts were traded, compared to the 808k contracts traded on the 1/2 day of July 3. This raises questions about the expected October selling, especially considering October typically marks the fiscal year-end for many mutual funds. So far, this year seems uneventful from that perspective, with volume continuing to decline.
Additionally, the S&P 500 futures managed to push through the upper boundary of the rising wedge pattern. While this isn’t entirely unexpected, as it has happened before (notably in July, before the market turned lower into the August low), it doesn’t necessarily invalidate the pattern. It’s worth watching closely for signs of a similar reversal.
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The volume levels in the NASDAQ futures were as weak as those in the S&P 500. The key difference is that while the NASDAQ futures hit the upper trend line of the wedge, they failed to break through. Instead, they stopped right at the trend line, indicating potential resistance at that level.
The equity market’s performance has primarily mirrored Nvidia, which managed to reach a new closing high today. However, it still needs to surpass its prior intraday high from mid-July. Notably, option volume was down significantly, with only 2.3 million call contracts traded compared to 3.2 million on Friday and an average of 3.4 million over the past 20 days. This decline in volume may suggest that the stock isn’t as appealing at its current price levels as it was a week or two ago.
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The stock price climbed to around $139.60 early in the session, but it stalled at that level, which had previously served as resistance in July.
A wave of earnings reports starts coming out tomorrow, alongside VIX options expiration on Wednesday and stock options expiration on Friday. Additionally, bond markets will be open, so I expect trading volumes to pick up as we head into a busy week ahead.
-Mike
Charts used with the permission of Bloomberg Finance L.P. This report contains independent commentary to be used for informational and educational purposes only. Michael Kramer is a member and investment adviser representative with Mott Capital Management. Mr. Kramer is not affiliated with this company and does not serve on the board of any related company that issued this stock. All opinions and analyses presented by Michael Kramer in this analysis or market report are solely Michael Kramer’s views. Readers should not treat any opinion, viewpoint, or prediction expressed by Michael Kramer as a specific solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a particular security or follow a particular strategy. Michael Kramer’s analyses are based upon information and independent research that he considers reliable, but neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Michael Kramer is not under any obligation to update or correct any information presented in his analyses. Mr. Kramer’s statements, guidance, and opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment commentary presented in this analysis. Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investments or strategies mentioned in this analysis may not be suitable for you. This material does not consider your particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs and is not intended as a recommendation appropriate for you. You must make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies in this analysis. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Before acting on information in this analysis, you should consider whether it is suitable for your circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser to determine the suitability of any investment.
This report contains independent commentary to be used for informational and educational purposes only. Michael Kramer is a member and investment adviser representative with Mott Capital Management. Mr. Kramer is not affiliated with this company and does not serve on the board of any related company that issued this stock. All opinions and analyses presented by Michael Kramer in this analysis or market report are solely Michael Kramer’s views. Readers should not treat any opinion, viewpoint, or prediction expressed by Michael Kramer as a specific solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a particular security or follow a particular strategy. Michael Kramer’s analyses are based upon information and independent research that he considers reliable, but neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Michael Kramer is not under any obligation to update or correct any information presented in his analyses. Mr. Kramer’s statements, guidance, and opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment commentary presented in this analysis. Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investments or strategies mentioned in this analysis may not be suitable for you. This material does not consider your particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs and is not intended as a recommendation appropriate for you. You must make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies in this analysis. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Before acting on information in this analysis, you should consider whether it is suitable for your circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser to determine the suitability of any investment.
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