Stocks Drop On November 3, 2022, And Approach New Lows

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Stocks moved lower today, with the S&P 500 dropping by around 1%. It looked like one of those pause days we see pretty often on the charts, in between bigger-sized moves. Tomorrow with the Jobs report, anything is possible, but given the strength of the data in many recent surveys and jobless claims, I think we have seen little, if any, change in the unemployment rate. Estimates are pretty low, with the non-farm payroll rising by around 198,000 and the unemployment rising to 3.6%.

But based on how we have seen these big drops followed by pause days work before, I think we probably continue to head lower and towards filling that gap at 3,580.


The TIP ETF is very close to making a new low here, and as we have tracked now for a very long time, if the TIP ETF makes a new low, the QQQ ETF won’t be far behind. Watch the TIP ETF tomorrow for clues.

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The VIX moved lower today, and we are seeing traders looking for hedges more aligned with the economic data schedule. With S&P 500 options that now expire every day, why buy a put that is 30 days away when you can buy a put that expires next week? So you can see that the VIX fell today, but the VIX 9-Day Volatility Index remained in the same range it has been for some time.

PayPal (PYPL)

PayPal is getting clocked after hours on weak payment volumes and weaker-than-expected revenue guidance. So much for my bull flag and rising RSI. At this point, the stock is in the range that could lead to it retesting the lows around $69.50. After that, you could be talking about a stock that goes under $60 because support thins out after that. It is just amazing what has happened to this stock.

Adobe (ADBE)

Adobe fell sharply today, and this has been one of the stocks I like to watch for broader market sentiment. So I will watch closely to see if Adobe will soon make a new low. If it does, it is probably a harbinger of what will come for the rest of the market.

So, we will have to wait and see how that job data comes in tomorrow.


Charts used with the permission of Bloomberg Finance LP. This report contains independent commentary to be used for informational and educational purposes only. Michael Kramer is a member and investment adviser representative with Mott Capital Management. Mr. Kramer is not affiliated with this company and does not serve on the board of any related company that issued this stock. All opinions and analyses presented by Michael Kramer in this analysis or market report are solely Michael Kramer’s views. Readers should not treat any opinion, viewpoint, or prediction expressed by Michael Kramer as a specific solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a particular security or follow a particular strategy. Michael Kramer’s analyses are based upon information and independent research that he considers reliable, but neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Michael Kramer is not under any obligation to update or correct any information presented in his analyses. Mr. Kramer’s statements, guidance, and opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Past performance of an index is not an indication or guarantee of future results. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Exposure to an asset class represented by an index may be available through investable instruments based on that index. Neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment commentary presented in this analysis. Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investments or strategies mentioned in this analysis may not be suitable for you. This material does not consider your particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs and is not intended as a recommendation appropriate for you. You must make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies in this analysis. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Before acting on information in this analysis, you should consider whether it is suitable for your circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser to determine the suitability of any investment.