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Stocks Finish Flat As The Bears Take The Day Off

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10/2/24

#MACRO: $SPX,

#STOCKS:

Stocks finished little changed on Wednesday, ahead of ISM services data tomorrow and, of course, the employment report on Friday. The VIX—1Day closed today around 14, and given the importance of the job report on Friday, I would be shocked if it doesn’t climb to 20 or higher tomorrow.

Whether the market sells off tomorrow depends entirely on whether the VIX Index rises. If it goes up, along with the VIX 1-day, the market will sell off sharply one day. If the VIX 1-day goes up, and the VIX 30 is down or flat, the market probably does nothing.

The one thing that is apparent is that the top of the book continues to be a problem for the market and is very thin. This just means it is much easier for the market to move around, and without the JPM Collar to hold things together, we are seeing bigger price swings throughout the day.

 

The index opened lower by 60 bps today, finishing the day flat.

 

Volume today was also 20% below the 20-day average.

Overall, the volume of S&P 500 futures was also much lower than yesterday, when the sellers were out in force.

Also, gamma levels are significantly reduced and basically at zero. That positive gamma mean- reverting force that had been in place for two weeks is gone.

When you put all of the pieces together, today’s price action tells you that the sellers were mainly absent. Even on a day when the sellers were mainly absent, the bulls could do little to lift the market, even in an environment where sweeping the top book could probably easily push it higher. All the sellers have to do is show up, and if they show up, I think there is little to hold this market up at this point. It is too thin, and buyers look tired.

The most bullish thing right now is the gap left open from yesterday’s opening. With a potential diamond bottom, that gap could be filled sooner rather than later.

But if implied volatility is bid tomorrow, then that gap may have to wait until after the job report comes on Friday, or it may not be filled anytime soon at all.

-Mike

Charts used with the permission of Bloomberg Finance L.P. This report contains independent commentary to be used for informational and educational purposes only. Michael Kramer is a member and investment adviser representative with Mott Capital Management. Mr. Kramer is not affiliated with this company and does not serve on the board of any related company that issued this stock. All opinions and analyses presented by Michael Kramer in this analysis or market report are solely Michael Kramer’s views. Readers should not treat any opinion, viewpoint, or prediction expressed by Michael Kramer as a specific solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a particular security or follow a particular strategy. Michael Kramer’s analyses are based upon information and independent research that he considers reliable, but neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Michael Kramer is not under any obligation to update or correct any information presented in his analyses. Mr. Kramer’s statements, guidance, and opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment commentary presented in this analysis. Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investments or strategies mentioned in this analysis may not be suitable for you. This material does not consider your particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs and is not intended as a recommendation appropriate for you. You must make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies in this analysis. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Before acting on information in this analysis, you should consider whether it is suitable for your circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser to determine the suitability of any investment.

 

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This report contains independent commentary to be used for informational and educational purposes only. Michael Kramer is a member and investment adviser representative with Mott Capital Management. Mr. Kramer is not affiliated with this company and does not serve on the board of any related company that issued this stock. All opinions and analyses presented by Michael Kramer in this analysis or market report are solely Michael Kramer’s views. Readers should not treat any opinion, viewpoint, or prediction expressed by Michael Kramer as a specific solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a particular security or follow a particular strategy. Michael Kramer’s analyses are based upon information and independent research that he considers reliable, but neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Michael Kramer is not under any obligation to update or correct any information presented in his analyses. Mr. Kramer’s statements, guidance, and opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment commentary presented in this analysis. Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investments or strategies mentioned in this analysis may not be suitable for you. This material does not consider your particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs and is not intended as a recommendation appropriate for you. You must make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies in this analysis. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Before acting on information in this analysis, you should consider whether it is suitable for your circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser to determine the suitability of any investment.