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4/25/22
STOCKS – ARKK, SHOP
MACRO – SPY, QQQ, VIX
- RTM: Vanna Trade On Display [Daily Update]
- RTM: Looking For New Lows [Daily Update]
- RTM – ISRG [Internal Notes]
- RTM: Powell Targets Financial Conditions [Daily Update]
- RTM: Bonds Hidden Message? [Daily Update]
- Visa And Mastercard Inflation Hedges? [Video]
S&P 500 (SPY)
As noted on Saturday’s post, the Vanna rally arrived late in the day on Monday, and it helped the S&P 500 close higher. The index rose by almost 60 bps after trading down by more than 1% most of the day. The index managed to close just below 4,300, and I think there is a possibility that the index will advance a bit further to around 4,330 to 4,340. But I doubt this rally is sustainable.
VOL (VIX)
The VIX got too high today, crossing above 31, which is not sustainable when the S&P 500 is down 1%. It is no surprise that the VIX imploded late in the date to close around 27. Could the VIX go back to 24? Yes. Could it go back to 20? Doubtful. The risks going into the FOMC meeting are too high, and traders will need to buy protection heading into that meeting.
Rates
There was a lot happening today, and most of it centered around China and its slowing growth. That sent nominal bond yields lower, but real yields rose some. So the fact that the NASDAQ rallied made no sense from a fundamental standpoint and should have given you a clue as to the rally’s sustainability.
ARKK (ARKK)
The ARKK ETF rose around 3% today, but I guess it was due after falling 11% last week. The ETF moved back to resistance around $54.35 and nothing else. It seems like a dead cat bounce.
Shopify (SHOP)
Despite the ARKK ETF and the QQQ ETF being up, Shopify finished flat, surprising. There is still another shoe to drop here, given the declining RSI.
That is going to be all; it is getting late.
Mike
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This report contains independent commentary to be used for informational and educational purposes only. Michael Kramer is a member and investment adviser representative with Mott Capital Management. Mr. Kramer is not affiliated with this company and does not serve on the board of any related company that issued this stock. All opinions and analyses presented by Michael Kramer in this analysis or market report are solely Michael Kramer’s views. Readers should not treat any opinion, viewpoint, or prediction expressed by Michael Kramer as a specific solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a particular security or follow a particular strategy. Michael Kramer’s analyses are based upon information and independent research that he considers reliable, but neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Michael Kramer is not under any obligation to update or correct any information presented in his analyses. Mr. Kramer’s statements, guidance, and opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment commentary presented in this analysis. Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investments or strategies mentioned in this analysis may not be suitable for you. This material does not consider your particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs and is not intended as a recommendation appropriate for you. You must make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies in this analysis. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Before acting on information in this analysis, you should consider whether it is suitable for your circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser to determine the suitability of any investment.
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