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October 22, 2020
Stocks – INTC, XOM, NFLX, MU
Macro – SPY, Rates, VIX
S&P 500 (SPY)
Stocks managed to finish mostly higher on October 22, with the S&P rising by around 50 basis points. There was really not much accomplished on the stimulus front, other than the usual back and forth. The S&P 500 managed to rise right to resistance around 3,465 and didn’t have enough strength to breakthrough. I think that likely comes tomorrow.
The pattern is still very bullish, in my opinion, and it suggests to me we are likely heading higher toward 3,600 over the next few trading session, I think most likely before the election.
VIX
One reason is that as we get closer to the election, it seems that implied volatility levels are again starting to move lower. Now that could be that polls on the national level are so wide that it seems as if we will have a clear winner come election night. If that is the case, then the VIX should continue to fall, which will provide the fuel to help leave the market higher.
Rates
Rates continue to surge as expectations for a new stimulus deal continue to build. At this point, equities don’t seem too concerned about higher yields, so 91 basis points may be on the way.
Intel (INTC)
Intel is falling by almost 10% after hours after its datacenter revenue fell short of estimates. The company is really just such a disappointment. They can’t get out of their own way; either that or AMD and NVDA are just eating their lunch. The stock is lucky it has so much support in the $48 to $49 level. (Premium content – Intel’s Stock Is Breaking Out from 10.12.20)
Exxon (XOM)
Exxon surged by 5% today and is getting closer to that resistance level at $36.25. That will be a big test of the stock that can reach that price, with a breakout, triggering an advance to $39.30.
Netflix (NFLX)
Netflix was weak again today, and the real test won’t come until it gets to $470. That will be the moment of truth for Netflix.
Micron (MU)
Micron surged today by around 2% and reached a high of $54.85, which is about 1% off from my target of $55.50. I’ll take it a call it a day. I will revisit this one and think about what happens next. (Premium content – Micron’s Shares May Jump 9% from 10.15.20)
See ya
-Mike
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This report contains independent commentary to be used for informational and educational purposes only. Michael Kramer is a member and investment adviser representative with Mott Capital Management. Mr. Kramer is not affiliated with this company and does not serve on the board of any related company that issued this stock. All opinions and analyses presented by Michael Kramer in this analysis or market report are solely Michael Kramer’s views. Readers should not treat any opinion, viewpoint, or prediction expressed by Michael Kramer as a specific solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a particular security or follow a particular strategy. Michael Kramer’s analyses are based upon information and independent research that he considers reliable, but neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Michael Kramer is not under any obligation to update or correct any information presented in his analyses. Mr. Kramer’s statements, guidance, and opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment commentary presented in this analysis. Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investments or strategies mentioned in this analysis may not be suitable for you. This material does not consider your particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs and is not intended as a recommendation appropriate for you. You must make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies in this analysis. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Before acting on information in this analysis, you should consider whether it is suitable for your circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser to determine the suitability of any investment.
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