This column is my opinion and expresses my views. Those views can change at a moments notice when the market changes. I am not right all the time and I do not expect to be. I disclose all my positions clearly listed on the page, and I do not trade my account on the stocks spoken of in this column unless fully disclosed. If that does not work for you stop reading and close the page. Do not bother me or harass me.
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Stocks Near Record Highs, Tesla’s Surges Nearing Monster Break Out
Michael Kramer and the clients of Mott Capital own shares of TSLA, DIS, NFLX, and V
The S&P 500 is nearly at an all-time high, and it was about six months ago when everyone thought the world would cave-in. I will tell you it isn’t easy to remain optimistic, trying to explain to investors that the outlook for the economy and earnings are strong. Remember, when push comes to shove, earnings always rule the land, and right now the backdrop for stocks still looks strong.
I posted a 15-minute video today going through exactly how I go through the data to develop my outlook for the market, and where I think it is going. It is a member video, again the service is $200 a year, but the first two-week are free for you to try.
Anyway, in the video I make a case for the S&P 500 rising to 3,500. Yes, 3,500.
Well, it was undoubtedly a bizarre day for Tesla, and that may be an understatement. The Tesla news took all the headlines, it was as if the world stopped and the only thing that matter was Tesla. First reports surfaced that the Saudi Sovereign Wealth Fund took a 3 to 5 percent stake in Tesla stock, sending shares higher. Then in a bizarre move, Elon Musk tweeted his intention to take the company private for $420 per share. It resulted in shares eventually get halted, and trading 10 percent higher on the day.
I don’t know what from happens here; I’m not sure anyones does. But I can tell you; I will not be happy if the company goes private. I know Elon Musk doesn’t care for Wall Street or the Short-Sellers. But it would seem to me that the company is finally turning the corning, and now he wants to go private? I’m sorry, but my intentions and reasons for holding this stock for nearly four years were not to make only a 60 or 70 percent return, which by the way would not be all that much better than the S&P 500. I know it sounds greedy, but I invest in long-term growth companies that I think can grow at multiple times, stocks like Visa or Netflix are examples. We shall see what happens.
BTW I think he could pull this off if he wanted to. Remember he owns 22 percent of the shares already and with the Saudi’s now involved, about 65 to 70 percent of the company is own by the top 10 to 15 holders. Remember Tencent also owns about 4 to 5 percent of the stocks. So yes I think he could pull it off.
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Technically, the stock is very close to a major break out. It was headed that way when the Saudi news hit, even before the potential take the stock private news. So, the stock may be heading higher regardless.
Disney reported results and they weren’t great, but forget about the numbers, because the only that matters at this point are details around Fox, its streaming platform, and potential commentary around how ESPN’s streaming service is doing. It is about the future of Disney. More tomorrow.
Netflix got up to resistance and failed at its first try at $357.75. Not a great sign! So we will have to see if makes another attempt tomorrow.
The technical setup in the 10-year is starting to look, well, pretty bearish. We shall see.
More charts tomorrow, if anyone has some good stocks for me to look message me on StockTwits. No penny stocks or market cap’s sub $2 billion though.
Ok, so now I am starting to actively self-promote myself, but then again I gotta eat too, so please check out my member’s area. I price it to be a cheap service because I’m trying to honestly make some money but also help investors looking to learn. Members can post questions, and I usually get back to them in less than 12 hours through email and also post answers in videos showing you how I do the work.
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Here are some of the better video’s this year.
Good Luck This week.
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Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future.
#sp500 #stocks #tesla #netflix #disney