Stocks Rally For The Incumbent Ahead of Election Night
trump or biden text on wooden signpost outdoors

Stocks Rally For The Incumbent Ahead of Election Night

11/3/20

STOCKS – ROKU, BABA, AMD

MACRO – SPY, OIL, 

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Stocks continued to surge, today filling a gap from October 28 and failing right at it. It would indicate that the next move in the index should be the previous trend, which should be lower. In this case, potentially filling all the gaps down to 3,270.  The relative strength index is still trending lower as well, confirming the gap-fill pattern. 

I have read that the S&P 500 has correctly called the election for the past forever how many years it was up or down over the past three months.  If you must know, the S&P 500 on August 3 and 4 was 3,284 and 3,306. So yes, the S&P 500 is higher than those prints and would suggest the incumbent wins, Trump. I really don’t believe in these types of things, but what do I know.  I already predicted Trump would win, so we will find out, I hope, tonight. 

Oil 

Oil prices also rose today, perhaps predicting a Trump win. Remember if Biden wins, you probably get more trade deals and the removal of some of the Trump restrictions from foreign oil producers, which would send oil prices lower. 

Yields and the Dollar 

Meanwhile, yields were up and the dollar was down, which indicates we are likely to be spending a lot of money no matter who wins. 

Alibaba (BABA)

Alibaba was hit hard after ANT Group’s IPO was blocked by the Chinese Government. I guess for Alibaba all gaps get filled too. The stock fell to around $280, which is a key level of support, that will need to hold if it hopes to rebound. 

AMD (AMD)

AMD was up over 2%, but the trend is still clearly lower despite the rally. 

Roku (ROKU) 

Roku was down today after Comcast said would start selling smart TV. Anyway, I will never understand why the market gives the stock such a big multiple for business with basically no barriers to entry. But it is what it is, and I don’t care enough to fight it. The stock could have a bit to drop if the selling picks up momentum with support around  $175.

-Mike

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