This column is my opinion and expresses my views. Those views can change at a moments notice when the market changes. I am not right all the time and I do not expect to be. I disclose all my positions clearly listed on the page, and I do not trade my account on the stocks spoken of in this column unless fully disclosed. If that does not work for you stop reading and close the page. Do not bother me or harass me.
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May 6, 2021
STOCKS – TWLO, DOCU, ZM
MACRO – SPY, QQQ
Stocks finished the day higher, after an end-of-day panic buying episode. There is a multitude of things that drove that final hour spike higher. The first being unwinding of short positions likely ahead of tomorrow’s Non-Farm Payroll report. Second, it had a “gamma” reshuffling feel to it—third more than $2 billion to buy on the closing cross.
Clearly, the markets are nervous about tomorrow’s payroll number. We have virtually been marking time all week, stuck in a trading range between 4,120 and 4,200. I could not even begin to predict what the job number will be, but we may reach a point where the better the number, the worse it is for stocks. Estimates are for about 1 million jobs added in April, with no change in month/month’s wages. I haven’t the slightest idea what will happen.
Yields haven’t been rising, despite hotter inflation data, this past week. Meanwhile, the equity market has done nothing despite the better earnings for the past 3 weeks. So who knows.
Some stocks are getting absolutely annihilated, in a way I haven’t seen in two decades.
Zoom has been destroyed, down more than 50%, and the scary thing is, this stock really could fall even further. Hopefully, the stock will find some support at $276, but the RSI is telling you it hasn’t bottomed yet.
DocuSign is sitting on support at $188, and if that level breaks, this stock will easily go back to $160.
Twilio, well, there is an unfilled gap down at $120, and while I am not suggesting it goes there in a straight line, at some point, many gaps do get filled.
Anyway, I’m done and tired.
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